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exgaffer Posted on 30/06/2020 12:34
New flu virus
I see a new flu virus with Ďpandemic potentialí has emerged in China.

You lockdown fans will be getting all moist at the mere thought 😎.
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Cressers Posted on 30/06/2020 12:43

New flu virus

Though it is nothing to get your panties in a knot about at present, it's worth being aware of. Should it encounter covid-19 and reassort, the result night be nasty.
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yellowcheesemonkey Posted on 30/06/2020 12:47
Edited On: 30/06/2020 12:47
New flu virus

Another swine flu isnt it -Just dont play with the Piggies then...[:D]
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cunninglinguist Posted on 30/06/2020 12:59
Edited On: 30/06/2020 13:00
New flu virus

The media are desperate for bad news and a large percentage of the public are eager to receive it.
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Deebo Posted on 30/06/2020 13:03

New flu virus

Sad and totally correct.
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Gooders Posted on 30/06/2020 14:53

New flu virus

so sad and true I have had 4 different people here in manila tellme the news story today. Its big news here in Philippines!!!
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Pedalo_menders Posted on 30/06/2020 14:57

New flu virus

Its good and bad, isnt it. Good that they've identified it and that people will take it seriously now. Bad news, for obvious reasons now.

No-one likes lockdown, you dinlo. But some people are better at sucking it up than others. Look at what a mess The US and Brazil are in now.
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exgaffer Posted on 30/06/2020 17:33

New flu virus

We shouldnít be Ďsucking it upí because it doesnít work, all it does is impoverish the country.

The US isnít in a mess, though the media would have you believe that it is. They have a diverse and very large population, so they will obviously have a lot of cases.

Calling people dinlos doesnít alter the fact that some people seem very reluctant to end the shutdown. I have heard some people say they want to lock down until itís safe, well that will be for ever then.

Most people have nothing to fear, and should not be locked away in order to protect those that do. Those that are at risk of poor outcomes should shield (if they want to).

Iím in the Ďat riskí group ffs and I think the lockdown has been a very bad mistake.
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Pedalo_menders Posted on 30/06/2020 18:21

New flu virus

Its been proven (so far) that the fastest and most effective way to combat the virus is to lock down peoples movements until you can get to a stage where you have identified all active cases. Only then can you contain and reduce the infection rate. Then, once you know where the virus is in the community, you implement teams to track and trace...

Meaning you can then open up the economy, borders with other successful countries, and shelter the vulnerable properly. You cant do any of that if you cant hold your nerve long enough to control the situation.

Peoples inability to understand this in The US has absolutely fýcked them.

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Bluestow Posted on 30/06/2020 19:19

New flu virus

Just reading about the Spanish Flu pandemic when about 230k people died in the UK.

They didnít have a national health coordinated response, the better housing, health care, science and social care that we have. And yet, with all these advantages plus a total lockdown we have 60k dead - so far. Without those things we could have easily have had the fatalities equivalent to 1919.
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tricky_ricky_pfc Posted on 30/06/2020 20:36

New flu virus

Spanish flu had an infection mortality rate north of 3%.

The CDC recently estimated covid-19 mortality at 0.26%.

A factor of 10 difference.

Where is the proof that lockdown is the best way to tackle the virus?

Thereís certainly some evidence that lockdowns have contributed significantly to excess mortality in countries that have followed that approach.

Itís dangerous to accept, without question, that lockdown is the best and only approach, history may well judge otherwise.
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Pedalo_menders Posted on 30/06/2020 23:34

New flu virus

Germany, Vietnam, New Zealand. 3 very different countries in 3 different continents with a commonality of isolate, track & trace.

All doing much much better in terms of death rate than countries like USA, Brazil, UK

I agree that we should question policy but it's not some government conspiracy to keep us from having a lovely summer.
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vote4pedro Posted on 01/07/2020 07:47
Edited On: 01/07/2020 07:52
New flu virus

Lockdown has resulted in the infection and death rate dropping.
Its litrally saved thousands of lives. Where is the argument against it?
It's that we took so long to go into lockdown that screwed us
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Gooders Posted on 01/07/2020 08:41

New flu virus

Ill give you an arguement against it. The world wide population as of 2018 was 7.654 BILLION. The destruction of economies, loss of jobs AUSTERITY the poor getting mugged off all over the world. Is the reality that the rich countries and wealthier people trying to protect themselves to save their own skins when infact we could do with a culling of the populace.
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exgaffer Posted on 01/07/2020 09:10

New flu virus

You canít compare success against COVID because there are so many differences between countries and you canít compare like with like.

For a start, the methods of counting deaths vary, some just count those who definitely died of the virus, some count those who were diagnosed positive and died, not the same thing at all.

I see New Zealand was mentioned. Well it's about as far as you can get from anywhere, has nowhere near as many people visiting it, and has a much less dense population, itís relatively easy to control the disease under such circumstances.

Supporters of lockdowns also seem to forget that COVID is just one threat among many, this obsession with it puts sufferers of other, far more deadly, disorders at greater risk. It also impoverishes countries and reduces their ability to provide healthcare.

It is not a particularly deadly disease, and locking down is a total over reaction.

We actually know the people most at risk of a poor outcome, but we donít know how many are infected, or how many have been infected but have now recovered. Track and trace is never anywhere near 100% effective either.

So, the best thing by far is to protect those you KNOW are at risk, if they consent to such protection of course. People should be free to make up their own minds what risks they are prepared to take.
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tricky_ricky_pfc Posted on 01/07/2020 14:23

New flu virus

We are still coming through this pandemic, and as such, nobody can say for sure whether lockdown was the right thing to do. You can cherry pick from the data to support either argument.

Brazil (very little lockdown), deaths per million 281
USA (light lockdown), deaths per million 393
Sweden (voluntary social distancing only), deaths per million 528
UK (3 month lockdown), deaths per million 644
Spain (strict lockdown), deaths per million 606
Belarus (zero lockdonw), deaths per million 42 (potentially unreliable data)

What to conclude from that? Probably that there are more factors at play here than we currently understand. In particular cross-immunity from other coronaviruses that may be present to different degrees in different populations.

Check the link below, there's some flaws in the analysis, but a quick view and it might look a convincing case that lockdowns actually caused the spikes in excess mortality we have seen in different countries.

There isn't a single version of "the science" on this yet because there isn't enough data, and we have never reacted to a pandemic like this before. The media report as if the modelling at Imperial College is the definitive truth on the matter, despite many other well respected mainstream scientists with very different views, and models that produce very different results.

There is no conspiracy of course, and it's a bit worrying that anyone questioning government policy can now be discarded as a nut job and lumped in the same bucket as David Icke.

Boris Johnson did not want to lockdown, but once other countries started doing so, he knew full well that whether we ended up with 10,000, 50,000 or 100,000 deaths, he would have been accused of killing x% of them by not locking down. He had no choice (and Rick is no Boris fan), same as other governments around the world, it was a domino effect.......with the exception of Sweden.

People strongly in favour of lockdown just will not address the issue of lives lost because of the lockdown, the NHS has been effectively shut for 3 months to anything other than Covid. We have prioritised Covid over everything else, and then shout about how virtuous we are because we've saved some people dying from Covid.

Over the last 3 months we have seen only 10% of cancer diagnoses we would expect over a normal three month period, this is building up huge problems for the next few years.

Many people were sent home from hospital around the middle of March to clear the wards for covid. Some of these people died at home unnecessarily. How many, we don't know yet. AS it turned out this capacity was never needed.

Many millions worldwide will be pushed into poverty, there will be increased mortality associated with that.

This single minded focus on covid has to end immediately, the NHS has to open back up immediately, but it's not happening yet.

Link: Lockdown?
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exgaffer Posted on 01/07/2020 14:38

New flu virus

Excellent piece Tricky.

Very balanced and well presented.

I agree, we need the NHS to get back to treating other conditions in a more Ďnormalí fashion. COVID is just one if many threats to life and it isnít even the main one.

I think Boris should have had the cojones to face down the mob but he is a politician and they rarely act bravely.
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muschi Posted on 01/07/2020 16:19
Edited On: 01/07/2020 16:33
New flu virus

A few points to add.

!, it is a mistake to look at individual countries, all the time there is no effective vaccine the poorer countries with limited medical service will just keep feeding the bug. Exotic holidays will see it re-enter the richer countries.

2, You can't compare this one to other pandemics, what would the death rates look like without modern hospital treatment? So you can't just say this one isn't particularly virulent no one really knows.

3, Indirect deaths due to cov19, India for example have a major health and financial crisis brewing due to the workforce having to leave the cities as the factories closed. Many died in the mass exodus now as they restart working there are not enough people to man the factories as the cheap labour has gone home or died. There are other similar examples.

4, it is dodgey to say lockdown doesn't work, it does if combined with excellent track and trace - Germany being the prime example.

5, There are other dangers in cov19 than death, Long term brain and lung damage are being cited.

There is still much to be learned before we move forward, anyone got the wisdom of Soloman to lend out?
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tricky_ricky_pfc Posted on 04/07/2020 14:07

New flu virus

Fair points muschi.

Still think it's not possible to say definitively that lockdown plus track and trace is the overall best option. It might control the virus, but without any real idea of lives lost as a result of the lockdown part, it's very hard to claim it's the best approach.

Looking at the european mortality data on excess deaths (linked below), there doesn't seem to be any correlation between lockdown policies and excess mortality experience, which suggests there are other unknown factors at play.

It's also true that in Europe, as lockdowns have been eased, infection rates have continued to fall. This is not what we were told would happen.

Link: momo
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foreverblue62 Posted on 04/07/2020 17:10

New flu virus

Flu is always around and every year it is dealt with. yawn.
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