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redwurzel Posted on 02/12/2019 01:48
Politics betting - any tips
 
Anyone do it?

I won quite a bit on Labour winning Stockton South in 2017 and Labour gaining more than 200 seats. Both were long shots.

I will bet on Conservatives and Liberals if there is value.

Again I think there is some value on Labour at present because they are almost completely wrote off. Current thinking is 68 Tory majority with almost all those gains in the North and Midlands of England (working class areas of the Midlands), I think it will be a small Tory majority maybe 10 - 20.

On the betting - Kensington constituency looks interesting. I am puzzled why the Conservative are quite strong favs to win it back. Many Tory voters in London are for Remain so I can't see them being attracted to the phrase "Lets get it done" some will surely defect to say Liberals or not vote. The Tory party is now much more pro BREXIT and some say would vote for a No Deal to get Brexit done. Any hardcore Brexiter would surely vote Brexit in this seat taking more Tory votes away from them.

This seat also contains Greenfell Towers the local Conservative councillors took some blame for the disaster again that can't help the Tory vote this month. GT happened after 2017 election. This seat has a lot of young voters in rented accommodation ands that trend is increasing these are not traditional Conservative voters. The Tory could win if the Remain vote is equally split amongst Labour and Liberals. The Liberals received 12 % of the vote last time I can't see that say doubling. Labour have now said they will propose a second referendum which is what most Londoners want so why would most of the Labour vote move to the Liberals?

Labour won by 20 votes in 2017 it could happen again so I took a bit of the 4/1 on offer for them to win this seat again.

Link:
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redwurzel Posted on 03/12/2019 02:15

Politics betting - any tips
A large swing to the Tories in Brexit areas seems priced in for the marginal seat of Middlesbrough South and Stockton South and Darlington.

I am surprised Labour are as short as 1.52 to win Hartlepool this seat was talked about as marginal with voters on benefits desperate to vote against Labour.

I can see a swing to the Tories in the other Teesside seats but not enough to cause a big upset.

I can smell some value in Remain areas for Labour, especially seats with a lot of young voters.
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TheFair86 Posted on 03/12/2019 09:11

Politics betting - any tips
Not betting this time but made a large amount on Stockton South, Brexit and Trump.

Tories could win Stockton South, its hard to call because both candidates have a lot of support but there is a lot of external factors like media portrayal of labour, and misconception of people that lap it up like our very own mickgaz who still perpetuates the myth that paul williams promised he would guide us out of europe on the very day he won the election, despite the videos I have shown him and election material that was delivered that promised to only vote on brexit deals that are good for the area and workers in the north east.

That said, Paul Williams is a lot better priced this time round than the 8/1 I took on him in 2017, but he was up against a ghost - but even with a completely absent MP, you still get Ingleby and Yarm people voting blue because they think they are middle class.

Brexit party is the wild card really, even though totally unlikely to win, you don't know how many thats going to take from each party.
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