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RexKramer Posted on 12/09/2019 00:33
Yellowhammer
 
 
I mentioned this on another thread but couldn't see one on this. Governments 'Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions'. Dated August 2nd, so hardly old news as Gove said when it's existence first leaked. Section 15 is redacted.

Link: Yellowhammer
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RexKramer Posted on 12/09/2019 00:40

Yellowhammer

 
"15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries."

Would that affect many around here?

Link: Section 15 thread.
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Scrote Posted on 12/09/2019 00:45

Yellowhammer

 
...and according to a whistleblower they've changed the title from "Base Scenario" which in government speak means 'the most likely to happen'
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RexKramer Posted on 12/09/2019 00:51

Yellowhammer

 
If this is having your cake and eating it then they can keep it, it looks and smells like siht.
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ExFootyLegs Posted on 12/09/2019 05:49
Edited On: 12/09/2019 06:10
Yellowhammer

 
Section 15. Wow

No wonder the government tried to blank it out

What on earth are we doing to our selves?

This is a quiet thread. Almost so bad people are speechless ?
Remember, this comes from a government trying to hide this document and a government that produced it which is very willing to come out without a deal knowing what it would inflict

Project reality folks

We literally have an extremist government squatting in No10 Downing Street
It’s scary to think we have boris gove raab Barclay truss Cummings etc making decisions about our future

Lunatics running the asylum
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Edis_Pilf Posted on 12/09/2019 06:34

Yellowhammer

 
And yet despite all evidence to the contrary we still have 25% of the country telling the other 75% that they must adhere to a vote that happened in one single point in time.
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TerryWay Posted on 12/09/2019 06:52

Yellowhammer

 
I tried to raise this story on another thread and some people on here got very upset and started to try and accuse me of being some troll.

I didn’t realise simply sharing actual headline news would cause people to get so any on here upset
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Fabios_porkpie_provider Posted on 12/09/2019 06:52
Edited On: 12/09/2019 06:54
Yellowhammer

 
Whilst also completely refusing to accept, or in a lot of cases, even look at anything that doesn’t back up their original viewpoint. It’s all just scaremongering...... apparently.
How many more lies need to be confirmed as lies, before the penny will finally drop for some of these leavers, the ones who are going to be worst affected??
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Ticker_Tape Posted on 12/09/2019 07:02

Yellowhammer

 
[^]
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TerryWay Posted on 12/09/2019 07:27

Yellowhammer

 
I think the penny dropped a while ago for most leavers but they have gone down this crazy path for so long, they don’t want to lose face by turning around now.

Better for them to walk off the edge of a cliff then admit they made a mistake it seems. Then lash out at anyone who tries to stops them dragging others over the edge with them.
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Ziggy Posted on 12/09/2019 07:50

Yellowhammer

 
These bits of paper are a fückin insult. Comes nowhere near the original synopsis, not even anywhere near it. That's supposed, according to one of the 21 rebel Tories to be about 37 pages long.
On that it's alleged Gove said "If this gets out, that's the end of Brexit"
As things start getting worse in the attempt to get ' a deal ' more real information will begin to leak out.
It's not even an up to date copy of anything resembling the reality of what will actually happen.
But it does in a small way vindicate what the "Experts"
have been saying for the last 3 years.

But like WormGove said. "Quite frankly people are getting fed up with experts"



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r00fie1 Posted on 12/09/2019 07:53

Yellowhammer

 
This was simmering over two years ago about the state preparing when the schitt hits the fan - but was laughed at and dismissed as fantasy.

Frightening how many of us can be fooled some of the time, but thankfully not all of the time[:(]
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big-eggo Posted on 12/09/2019 08:09

Yellowhammer

 
in No10 Yellowhammer has been referred to as Schittsplatter.
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ExFootyLegs Posted on 12/09/2019 08:29

Yellowhammer

 
everyone notice the lack of leavers on this thread stamping their feet asking for BREXIT still deal or no-deal ???

Wonder where they are ?
(probably logging into their BNP accounts)

They'll be along shortly waving their little englanders flag....[:o)]

Doesn't it just tell you everything about Boris Johnson and Gove Raab Davies Truss etc..they are extremists with posh voices. No more no less.

We have an extremist government in charge who are clearly set to be re-imbursed financially their their 'friends' who'll make billions on betting against the pound on day one.
Boris will be ok.

Social care providers going out of business
Public Disorder (another word for riots)
Fuel & food shortages
Price increases
Medicine shortages

You literally couldn't make it up.
Going to war wouldn't be as bad as this.

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bear66 Posted on 12/09/2019 08:36

Yellowhammer

 
The far right are now an acceptable group and Boris et al are giving their views credibility, increasing their numbers. The Telegraph has moved from being objective (with right wing emphasis) to being a 'populist' rag.
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Heam44 Posted on 12/09/2019 08:47

Yellowhammer

 
Maybe bigrich will be along soon with a verse or two of god save the queen or rule Britannia.

I feel sorry for Fooman, he would’ve enjoyed this thread.
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festa5 Posted on 12/09/2019 08:50

Yellowhammer

 
Well now they've released I expert anarchy as everyone panics based on the content. Riots and all-sorts was the implication from the Government on why it shouldn't be published.

Wonder if there's any baked beans left in Tesco or am I too late?
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TheBoy007 Posted on 12/09/2019 09:18

Yellowhammer

 
Think this thread should be a sticky, or least we should keep it at the top by posting on it continually.

Where's the Brexiters?
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r00fie1 Posted on 12/09/2019 09:26

Yellowhammer

 
A number of Army units have always been trained in riot control - not just for export abroad. If key industries such as refineries are labeled as "of national importance" it would be no surprise for the lads to be ready.

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boscosbaldynapper Posted on 12/09/2019 09:42

Yellowhammer

 
Not been argumentative for sake of iit but how did we manage 40 years ago before we joined EU for so long?
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FrozenHorse Posted on 12/09/2019 10:27
Edited On: 12/09/2019 10:43
Yellowhammer

 
"Not been argumentative for sake of iit but how did we manage 40 years ago before we joined EU for so long?"


First thought is did we manage ok? Life expectancy now is over 7 years longer than in '79. I'm not suggesting that that is all down to EU membership: other factors played a part too, but medicine shortages could reverse the trend for the first time in decades.

I suppose the real answer is the world has changed in 40 years: not least through the rise of the EU itself which has grown massively in size and economic power in that time. The rise of China in recent decades is also a factor.

"UK independence", in or out of the EU, is a romantic myth: we're going to be heavily influenced by at least one of the economic blocks that dominate the world: the EU, US or China. I still prefer the EU.
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Ironops Posted on 12/09/2019 10:29

Yellowhammer

 
40 years ago we didnt have an economy that was as integrated into the EU. We didnt import as much stuff, less cars on the road, it was a different world.

So its not legitimate to say 'we managed before' - that was then.
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TheBoy007 Posted on 12/09/2019 10:34
Edited On: 12/09/2019 10:35
Yellowhammer

 
We had a manufacturing base 40 years ago. Then came Thatcher.

For the 150 years before that we brutally ruled the world with an iron fist and forced the conquered countries to trade with us on favourable terms.
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dooderooni Posted on 12/09/2019 10:40

Yellowhammer

 
40 years ago the glaciers weren't melting into the sea at unprecedented rates.

We need to bear our history in mind, but the future is growing ever shorter unless we start to be responsible about doing something to protect it. That's our future as a whole, not just our economic or environmental future. If we could get a fair and amicable deal from the EU to leave then I'd be for it, this shower are not doing Brexit for the benefit of anyone but themselves.
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lapennabianca Posted on 12/09/2019 10:47

Yellowhammer

 
I, for one, don't want to regress to 40 ago.
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festa5 Posted on 12/09/2019 10:49

Yellowhammer

 
Yep, it's irrelevant how the country did or didn't do 40, 50 or 100 years ago. It's a very different world now, changing at a rapid pace and the fantasy of the 'good old days' is concocted by Farage and his ilk to pray on the easily influenced.

I don't for a minute think he actually believes most of this nonsense himself, which shows the utter contempt he must really have for his supporters who hang on his every word.

Would we be ok on our own? Seems highly unlikely to me. I think even the brexit cheerleaders know this, hence their appetite to jump into bed with the US at the earliest opportunity post brexit.
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1finny Posted on 12/09/2019 10:54

Yellowhammer

 
There was no ‘yellowhammer’ equivalent of joining the EU.
Didn’t need to prepare for price rises and shortages of food and medicines.

It’s just bonkers that any government would countenance this - unless of course, they were funded by those making money out of it.
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TerryWay Posted on 12/09/2019 10:55

Yellowhammer

 
“Not been argumentative for sake of iit but how did we manage 40 years ago before we joined EU for so long?”

We also lived in caves thousands of years ago. What’s your point? Not understanding this rose tinted Luddite view of the 70s?
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FrozenHorse Posted on 12/09/2019 11:02

Yellowhammer

 
"we brutally ruled the world with an iron fist and forced the conquered countries to trade with us on favourable terms."

Sensible policies for a happier Britain.[^][rle]
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boscosbaldynapper Posted on 12/09/2019 12:08

Yellowhammer

 
We also lived in caves thousands of years ago. What’s your point? Not understanding this rose tinted Luddite view of the 70s?

Not having rose tinted glasses on mate, was asking the question, I actually don’t think we’ll be as bad off as a lot think as we also got told 3.5 years ago we’d be in major recession with 800k job losses, now we are one of fastest moving economies with lowest unemployment figures since 1971 so the ‘ experts’ arnt always right
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billyzin Posted on 12/09/2019 15:31

Yellowhammer

 
Millions on minimum wage/zero hour contracts with no possibility of saving for a house deposit or significantly contributing to a pension.
Fantastic.
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Ticker_Tape Posted on 12/09/2019 15:56

Yellowhammer

 
True Billy[^]
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JLinardi Posted on 12/09/2019 15:59

Yellowhammer

 
The current economy is an illusion based entirely on debt, if another collapse hits were fcucked as they played all their cards to fix the last one. Imagine negative interest rates.
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Ticker_Tape Posted on 12/09/2019 17:07

Yellowhammer

 
[^]
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FatCat Posted on 12/09/2019 17:10

Yellowhammer

 
We ill be completely screwed if there is a shortage of plastic bed sheets following a no deal.
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TheBoy007 Posted on 12/09/2019 17:31

Yellowhammer

 

"We ill be completely screwed if there is a shortage of plastic bed sheets following a no deal."

At last a sensible input from a Brexiter[rle]
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Lefty Posted on 12/09/2019 17:36

Yellowhammer

 
An important qualification to the OP; yellowhammer is not a reasonable worst case scenario, it is a base scenario. Gove was forced to admit as much on the radio this morning but even funnier, the govt. took the report, which stated ‘base scenario’ and simply changed that phrase to ‘reasonable worst case’ . Then these incompetent half wits sent the changed version to Westminster, but the version they sent to the Scottish govt., while identical in every other respect still had the original ‘base scenario’ phrase in it.

If I had been a Leaver I’d have changed my mind purely out of embarrassment by now.
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big-eggo Posted on 12/09/2019 18:30

Yellowhammer

 
Boris talking up a £15 billion between Scotland and Ireland all of a sudden.
Magic money tree must be coming on a treat at No11.
Bankrupting the country for another generation to sort out.
It will be great to get back to basics like manufacturing. The Chinese must be petrified [8D]
Some folk will get rich out of this - sorry i should have said richer. Government have already confirm that it is the less wealthy who will suffer most.

When Ireland is united, Scotland votes to leave and rejoin the EU and probably followed by Wales. All that will be left will be for the wealthy southerners to ditch the Northerners. See how your Eton chums look atfer the working man then.
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Ticker_Tape Posted on 12/09/2019 20:01

Yellowhammer

 
[^]
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deafschool Posted on 12/09/2019 22:11

Yellowhammer

 
Does Yellowhammer actually exist? Seems to be no mention of it in the Times, Telegraph, Sun or Daily Mail. Is it a figment of the extreme left wing imagination?
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RexKramer Posted on 13/09/2019 00:21

Yellowhammer

 
The reporter I linked to in the second post is from The Sunday Times.
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br14 Posted on 13/09/2019 03:51
Edited On: 13/09/2019 03:52
Yellowhammer

 
While the refinery may be affected, the rest of the country would be paying 5% less for fuel and other products.

That's a decent reduction in costs for motorists - i.e. just about everyone.

And then there's the reduced cost of haulage of all products. Which will either boost the profits of all trading companies, or could see prices fall across the board.

Reducing the price of fuel is a great way to give a boost to the economy.

And as an independent trading nation, if the government wants to protect the refineries, they can just apply a matching tariff. (It is the consumer that really pays the tariff wherever it is applied).

Or they could have a higher tariff to give the refineries a boost. Or they could reduce business rates; provide government grants; lower fuel taxes (to stimulate local demand); or a host of other policy options to mitigate the effect.

The North East stands to win big from Brexit, because with a 70% majority vote for Leave, both Tories and Labour will be desperate to win votes in the area. For the first time in a long time, they'll have to pay some attention. At least until an election.
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RexKramer Posted on 13/09/2019 07:44

Yellowhammer

 
There was an industry bod on the news yesterday explaining how oil companies treat Europe rightly as one area. The UK produces a lot of petrol and exports around 50%. Diesel not so much and we rely on imports. There is only so much petrol that can be used regardless of a few percent import tax before there is an over supply. Granted those markets will still need to be served but they can source what they require from anywhere in the world if they are going to have to pay import duty.
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Bri_Marwood Posted on 13/09/2019 07:48

Yellowhammer

 
"We had a manufacturing base 40 years ago. Then came Thatcher"

That should read........then came China.
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laughing Posted on 13/09/2019 08:10

Yellowhammer

 
Am I alone in thinking the yellowhammer report is lacking foundation? I get that it is probably a summary of a larger set of reports, but for the public to take it seriously, it would need that foundation.

One thing that would worry me, if it transpires, is the hold up of medications at border controls, which could have a huge impact on normal folks. I just cannot see why, in a modern Europe, we, the wider European community, would allow this to happen.

The report seems to highlight the following larger impacts:

Hold up for goods crossing the EU/UK boundry
Civil unrest
Fisherman fighting
Shortage of goods based on number 1
Increase in costs for imported goods

Not sure what the redacted bit was implying.

As mentioned above the shortage of medicine, and increased cost of food, for the less well off is a concern, and should be for us all. The report, for me, lacks the proper foundation and numbers.

We have all been let down by this government with a lack of proper preparation, if we should fall out of the EU by default. Whilst I am a leaver and I still think it is criminal of our government to allow this to happen when we have had 3 years to make an orderly withdrawal.
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boscosbaldynapper Posted on 13/09/2019 08:14

Yellowhammer

 
All this scaremongering regarding lack of food, medicine etc, we export as much as we import yet not heard any EU countries panicking they won’t get UK imports, it’s sll bollox and everyone knows if we/they require goods, medicine etc it will get there
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TerryWay Posted on 13/09/2019 08:20

Yellowhammer

 
boscosbaldynapper thanks for that.

I'm sure the British public are reassured by your in-depth analysis and qualified opinion.
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RexKramer Posted on 13/09/2019 08:22

Yellowhammer

 
Even if we open the border for imports the empty trucks will get stuck in traffic for days trying to return. Guess we could fast track empty trucks to the Dover somehow.
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Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 13/09/2019 08:29
Edited On: 13/09/2019 08:32
Yellowhammer

 
Bosco, that 'scaremongering' is coming from those within the Leave camp like yourself. Many will have been involved at the time the document was put together.

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CardiffDaffs Posted on 13/09/2019 08:29

Yellowhammer

 
Quite extraordinary cross messages coming from the Government on this.

Quite apart from Gove being an astonishing hypocrite in his two statements from March and now Government insisting it's a 'worst-case' so I can only assume that HMG is now happy to add "deliberately doctoring public documents to mislead the electorate" to the ever growing charge sheet.
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Adi_Dem Posted on 13/09/2019 08:29

Yellowhammer

 
I continue to be surprised by the XXXXXX people are prepared to persuade themselves of to justify a conclusion. Br14 trying to polish the turd of Yellowhammer is impressive. Utter bull but impressive nonetheless.
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TerryWay Posted on 13/09/2019 10:22

Yellowhammer

 
I’m not remotely surprised. This is how fanatics behave. Some people are so indoctrinated in the myth that Brexit will solve all their problems, they refuse to see the truth when its staring them in the face. I think we have to accept some people are too far brainwashed to change from their destructive beliefs. We can only hope to try and stop this mentality going into the next generation.
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boscosbaldynapper Posted on 13/09/2019 11:04

Yellowhammer

 
No problem Terry, I’m glad to of settled your nerves 😁
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boscosbaldynapper Posted on 13/09/2019 11:10

Yellowhammer

 
Ctc. You assume I voted to leave, I was talking about all the scaremongering and doomsday predictions, I actually don’t believe on of the XXXXXX that comes out of the 650 elected MPs, they are a joke to our democracy as they don’t follow a democratic vote, righty or wrongly the country voted to leave, my bigger issue is not, yellowhammer as I don’t believe anything this lot say anymore but not following a democratic vote is much more to worry about
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Adi_Dem Posted on 13/09/2019 12:42

Yellowhammer

 
Ah that old chestnut. Don't believe the experts, believe the vote was democratic and that somehow it is an affront to democracy not to crash out without a deal come what may.
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boscosbaldynapper Posted on 13/09/2019 12:47

Yellowhammer

 
YeH that old chestnut, your fight I don’t believe anything them halfwits say
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lapennabianca Posted on 13/09/2019 14:34

Yellowhammer

 
I'm always interested in people whon malign experts. If they're 'halfwits' - who do you think is intelligent?
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Ziggy Posted on 13/09/2019 18:06

Yellowhammer

 
The Yellowhammer document is a heavily redacted public acceptable out take from something called
Black Swan....allegedly.
Apparently a copy of this is due to be leaked in the next few days. But, who knows.

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boscosbaldynapper Posted on 13/09/2019 18:07

Yellowhammer

 
You’re right, good comment, maybe you could tell me who in the present shambolic commons are the intelligent ones and we’ll take it from there
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Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 13/09/2019 18:16

Yellowhammer

 
The MPs aren't experts and don't claim to be. They look for expert advice, some on our behalf, others on their own behalf.
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boscosbaldynapper Posted on 13/09/2019 18:43

Yellowhammer

 
Don’t claim to be......mmmmmm
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FatCat Posted on 13/09/2019 19:40

Yellowhammer

 
I think this provides a more balance view of yellowhammer

https://youtu.be/IUytKAQvd68

Link: https://youtu.be/IUytKAQvd68
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