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ExFootyLegs Posted on 11/09/2019 08:59
Edited On: 11/09/2019 09:03Election will solve nothing for Brexit
 
 
Elections should be fought over many very important national issues like education, health, police and the vision for our country and never over a single issue like Brexit because Brexit will take centre stage and this topic should be separate to all others.

Leaving the EU will impact on the funds available that any new governments promise in GE campaigns so all political parties cannot truly commit to the funds theyíll offer to our vital public services as they donít know how much Brexit will suck out of their budgets and affect the economy which affects tax receipts which affects money available for the public services.

In addition, the voting system in this country will give one party a tiny majority and approx. 40% of the vote but crucially then with the chance to shape the biggest single issue facing this country in 3-4 generations BUT WITHOUT a majority of the people giving them a mandate.
Thatís why Boris wants a GE rather than a 2nd referendum because its his best chance of delivering Brexit versus whats best for this country.

I sincerely hope the opposition parties continue to talk during this shutdown and use the strong position they currently have in the House of Commons to plot towards getting a vote through for another referendum with Remain versus Theresa Mays deal. Tom Watson is pushing hard and the guardian is running an article today indicating that MPs seem to have the numbers to get this started when they return on 14th October and hopefully get it done in the 2nd half of Oct.

Election are too important to be dominated by one topic when the next 5 years are at stake. Brexit needs sorting out separately.
Because one party will receive such a low percentage of the vote it will make division much much worse in the country not heal hence a referendum is the only way to sort it out.


Link: MPs plotting for 2nd Ref on Oct return
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zaphod Posted on 11/09/2019 09:03

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
The outcome of the next election is completely unpredictable, so it's not possible to say it won't solve Brexit. The most likely outcome IMHO is a minority Labour/SNP coalition.
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ExFootyLegs Posted on 11/09/2019 09:13
Edited On: 11/09/2019 09:15
Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
ZAphod

It is unpredictable but my point is the share of the vote will be so small that whoever gets power will not have a true mandate from the people to carry out their wishes for Brexit.

Only a referendum will do that and mixing all the other (more) important issues such as ending austerity and funding the NHS properly alongside police funds and education funds that are critical and therefore not be lost in the debate due to the passion of the Brexit debate.
The Tories just want Brexit over but it wont be over once we are out ; thatís the lie. It will then go on for years striking a trade deal with the EU and the USA and all the disagreements on food standards that will bring.

The Tories are lying when they say, lets just Ďget it doneí.
Given such a low percentage of people will shape the EU decision from GE vote the divisions will deepen and get worse as approx. 60% of the population will be driven down a path they donít necessarily want.
That cannot be good for healing this country. The Tories are just bothered about power though and keeping their Brexiteers on-side but if the opposition parties remain cool the split in the Tories in Oct will grow and hopefully fracture as these rebels vote with the opposition parties for a 2nd referendum.
Labour will lose the likes of Caroline Flint who will vote against it and perhaps 10 or so more but they will capture the Tory rebels so it could be done if they stick together.



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boromike85 Posted on 11/09/2019 09:30

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
"another referendum with Remain versus Theresa Mays deal"

Ha. Of course you'd want that because nobody thinks it's any good. It's a loaded question that would see a safe remain win.

The issue in the house at the moment is that there is a remain majority of MPs. The result of the last referendum or a new one will solve nothing if the house is opposed to leaving. We either need a remain vote with a remain majority of MPs or a leave vote with a leave majority otherwise the house and the electorate are out of sync and nothing will ever be solved.
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zaphod Posted on 11/09/2019 09:30
Edited On: 11/09/2019 09:34
Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
A Government freed from May's red lines could do a Brexit deal and then put it to a referendum. If Labour/SNP can negotiate a deal to put to a referendum, LibDems, Green & Plaid Cymru would probably support that.

The Tories' private polling suggests the Tories getting around 295 seats, so even with the DUP, they would not be in power. An election would also get rid of some pro-no-deal-Brexit Labour MPs.

PS: May's deal failed mainly because of the ERG and DUP.
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Ironops Posted on 11/09/2019 09:44

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
I think the most likely outcome right now is Tory's as largest party but probably unable to form a coalition. Labour would need both SNP and Libs to form a govt.
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zaphod Posted on 11/09/2019 09:48

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
Probably the LibDems would refuse a coalition, but agree to abstain on a no confidence motion. For that to work, Labour/SNP/Plaid/Green would have to outnumber Tory/DUP.
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coluka Posted on 11/09/2019 10:10

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
I agree Ironops, the problem I feel Labour has is that he Brexit Party will win some traditional Labour seats and Lib Dems will take some Tory remain seats reducing Labours chance of power, allowing the Tories to be the largest party propped up by Farage.

I hate to say it, but by naming his party the Brexit Party is one of the shrewdest moves in politics in recent times. They wont have longevity, but right now he will gain some seats in Parliament soon enough and wield more power [sad]
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zaphod Posted on 11/09/2019 10:33

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
I'm doubtful the Brexit Party will win any seats. They may contribute to Tories losing seats they could win by splitting the Brexiteer vote.
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Cooper6711 Posted on 11/09/2019 10:34
Edited On: 11/09/2019 10:51
Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
If labour want a second referendum they can campaign for that in a GE in their manifesto. Referendum delivers a leave result again the make up of MPs is exactly the same. Funny how this gets posted the morning Tom Watson and Keir Starmer are gonna make similar speeches

Itís pretty obvious some MPs who donít want brexit donít want a GE as their gonna get kicked out. They need a majority of MP against brexit hence the still wanting to put of a GE even after October 31st
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American_Mary Posted on 11/09/2019 11:25

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
A General Election becomes a de facto referendum, the Party that can get the soft Brexit vote will be the largest Party in the house, it's nigh on impossible to envisage anything other than a hung parliament.

Johnson and Farage going down the no deal route opens up a chasm for the moderate Brexiteers and compromise leavers, it would certainly be the demographic I'd be targeting.
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Matt07 Posted on 11/09/2019 11:37

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
Remember what happen in the EU election. Brexit party did pretty well especially up North.
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American_Mary Posted on 11/09/2019 11:51

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
A Party focusing on a European issue should do pretty well in a European Election it basically took the UKIP vote and their European Election vote hasn't held up in previous General Elections.

They will get votes, it would be churlish to think not, but probably not the amount required to win enough seats to form a significant proportion of the house, that may change, the problem they have is to come up with wider policies that challenge the other hard Brexit parties, if I was Farage, I'd go with a very social based policy on other matters to try and attract traditional Labour, but would he then lose his hard right support in the South East ?

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Ironops Posted on 11/09/2019 11:58

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
Torys predicted to be wiped out in Scotland, Wales, south west and most of London.

labour is in danger of losing lots of seats in north and industrial midlands

all depends on how much the Bxp will take seats from the tories as to how many seats labour holds on to

also the election will NOT be just about brexit

I think the range will be between Torys having small majority on 340 to labour being largest party on about 290 seats but I reckon it will be another hung parliament with tories as largest party
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coluka Posted on 11/09/2019 12:06

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
That is pretty much how i see it to Ironops
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Ironops Posted on 11/09/2019 12:28

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
[^][^]
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boromike85 Posted on 11/09/2019 12:37

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
Whatever happens all smaller parties should demand a vote on PR as a condition of any coalition/confidence and supply issue.

As much as I disagree with UKIP in general it shouldn't be possible that in 2015 4m people (12.6%) voted for a party and only had 1 MP (0.2%). UKIP got more votes than the SNP and Lib Dems combined who had 64 MPs.
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superstu Posted on 11/09/2019 12:51

Election will solve nothing for Brexit

 
It'll be interesting to see what happens to the Lib Dems level of support. I think they might have overstepped in the last week. They've made it a bit obvious that they're a controlled opposition party for the tories.

I say that on the basis of them firstly moving Chukka Umunna from contesting the seat he holds now, Streatham, to the Cities of Westminster and London seat - one that the tories always win but that Labour might have a chance of challenging.

Secondly, after years of pushing for a peoples vote they've changed their policy to just revoking article 50. They've done this because Labour are now pushing for a second referendum. Obviously they won't win enough seats to lead any government so the policy itself doesn't really matter. The purpose of what they're doing is to be able to say Labour's policy isn't enough, and to try and tempt remain voters to a safe, compliant party that won't radically challenge the tories.
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