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UncleBob Posted on 11/02/2019 15:17
Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead
 
 
I've identified the following variables

Time left to play

Number of attacking players substituted for defenders.

Number of attackers left as outlets to attack when defending.

Percentage of 1 on 1s converted by a teams lone striker

Depth of defending = number of players behind the ball

Plus some others
I would like to put these numbers together to estimate the probability of conceding before the 90 minutes (102 minutes) is up


I think TP and a few others have done this already and it must come to less than 50%.
With all the stats available form the various analysis companies I can only assume its worth doing.




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JLinardi Posted on 11/02/2019 15:24

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
I’ve never understood why teams do it, they could be 2-0 up in the 80th minute absolutely cruising then make some kind of change and end up being bombarded for 10 minutes.

In our case we changed the whole midfield apart from Mikel and therefore couldn’t keep hold of the ball higher up the pitch and just couldn’t get a break to regroup, get back into shape etc. I was gutted when the equalised but not surprised one bit.
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Tuncaythefunguy Posted on 11/02/2019 15:29

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
The wing injury didn't help. Besic isn't good enough tbh. He really struggled to keep hold of the ball.

It just goes to show how good Mikel is though and how important he could be. If Leeds had scored earlier, we may have struggled to get a draw.

But on the other hand, we should have been 2 nil up at half time.
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snitch Posted on 11/02/2019 15:45

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
Number of minutes injury time awarded -1 = goal. 😠😢
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Paulroddam7 Posted on 11/02/2019 16:02

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
People seem to forget there is actually another team playing the game as well. One that can’t defend their point any more and need to go for it theirselves.
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bear66 Posted on 11/02/2019 16:11

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
They aren't forgetting it. They recognise that the onslaught isn't defendable by having 11 men static in the area. What was as disappointing to the equaliser was Randolph wasting time to whittle the 2 minutes away rather than give us one more attack to win the game, although clearing the ball upfield was difficult as the Leeds team pressed us back even in those two minutes rather than sitting back on their hard earned draw.
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Muttley Posted on 11/02/2019 18:19

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
"I would like to put these numbers together to estimate the probability of conceding before the 90 minutes (102 minutes) is up. I think TP and a few others have done this already and it must come to less than 50%."

Do some work on it then. Otherwise this is just a made up number.

Given that we still have the most parsimonious defence in the league (we concede at a rate of 0.76 goals per game), then even assuming this was the instruction (as you do), was it not a reasonable tactical stance?
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borobuddah Posted on 11/02/2019 19:16

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
Er, right 😗
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borobadge Posted on 11/02/2019 19:38

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
John 'Jack' Charlton knows the secret combination...[^]


apparently TP is a disciple of Italian football and likes to play catenaccio … he really should be a grand-master by now!.
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borojim57 Posted on 11/02/2019 20:17

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
If only real life was like you playing football manager
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mexicanman Posted on 11/02/2019 22:20

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
Its been a pet hate of mine for many years.
Its not maths it just plain common sense, but that seems to be in short supply these days.
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Wev1 Posted on 12/02/2019 09:30

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
"People seem to forget there is actually another team playing the game as well. One that can’t defend their point any more and need to go for it theirselves."

Exactly. They have nothing to loose so will go 100% attacking, and they have the attacking players to do it, and they're used to attacking every game of every week.

The argument a few of the others on here are saying, for us to play attacking to counter their attacking threat is extremely weak. They won;t even see our attcking players as a threat, so can effectively ignore it.

Say Leeds go more attacking and get possession of the ball 100 times more in our half, how many do they score, say 10% for an example.

Say Boro get possession of the ball 100 times more in Leeds half, how many do we score? I'll bet my house it's less than Leeds.

The difference in the two is where you lose net goals, we need to keep that margin/ probability down.

If we bring on attacking players they might leave one extra man back, but the chances Leeds create at the other end will greatly increase, and they have the firepower to put them away.

We HAVE to make subs to counter Leeds fitness, their attacking threat and their ability. To do that by playing a style completely opposite to what we're used to (and where our strength is) would give worse results over time. We're unlucky we got caught out, but $hit happens.

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1finny Posted on 12/02/2019 09:57

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
I’m sure Sheff Utd fans are doing the same calculation after being 3-0 up against Villa
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American_Mary Posted on 12/02/2019 10:02

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
To do any kind of analysis you have to have a broad test sample to base it on, last three games at the Riverside have seen injury time equalisers, this is an exception rather than a rule.

Once you have raw data it’s interpreting that information into a usuable metric to predict what will happen in a specific situation, sometimes generally accepted notions are not applicable in certain instances, and as always the necessity to not overreact to an exception but to understand the overriding trend is crucial.

In general our game management in second tier football has been exceptional when we have scored first in a game, that stat stretches over three managers and 4 seasons it’s an overriding trend, for me the key question wouldn’t be how we manage once we’re a goal up but why we aren’t more attack minded more often to get into that position.

Still if you carry out full analysis I’m sure there will be information in there that you can advantagise
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Linthorpe_Exile Posted on 12/02/2019 10:20

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
I'm surprised no-one has referenced the famous Hawking-Horsefield equation, which itself borrows from the 1970s theory proposed by Bielsa et al


We have:

T = Normal Time left
T' = Amount of Extra Time
T'' = Individual Substitution Time
N(w) = Number of Substitutions available(currently leading team)
N(l) = Number of Substitutions available(currently losing team)
R(w) = Number of Red Cards (currently leading team)
R(l) = Number of Red Cards (currently losing team)
A = Away ticket allocation

Then we have :

P = A * {Log(e) [∫ (iπ (T^(T'-T'')) / √((R(l)+R(w))-(N(w)+N(l)))) ]} + c

where c is the speed of light, obv.


HTH

Link: Plotted
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Linthorpe_Exile Posted on 12/02/2019 10:22

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
Sorry, got out of bed the wrong side this morning.... [sad]
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skiprat Posted on 12/02/2019 10:25

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
None of this matters if Ayala actually does his job and defends the ball instead of trying to push Jansson.
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1finny Posted on 12/02/2019 11:14

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
A study a few years ago (based on the Prem) concluded the highest number of goals are conceded between the 40th and 45th minute.
There was a reasonably high % between 85th and 90th minute too.
The flaw, of course, is that in both those time frames there can be considerably more than 5 minutes.
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Anton_Berg Posted on 12/02/2019 12:01

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
TP's motto -

'Who dares, takes unnecessary risk"
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Muttley Posted on 12/02/2019 13:51

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
We have kept 14 clean sheets in the Championship this season, that's at least 28 halves of football without conceding a goal in 30 games. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to expect us to keep Leeds out for 43 minutes. Indeed if you are talking about the mathematics of this, defending the lead/shutting up shop is probably statistically the best strategy.
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JLinardi Posted on 12/02/2019 15:47

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
“People seem to forget there is actually another team playing the game as well. One that can’t defend their point any more and need to go for it theirselves."

Not at all, the whole point I was making was the team holding a lead seem to make a deliberate change to defend it and go from looking comfortable one minute to sitting deeper and getting bombarded the next. In that exact minute did the other team suddenly wake up and think oh schit we’d better start playing? No they’d been trying to play all game and only after the change could they make anything happen.

As I also said in our case on Saturday it was nothing to do with us needing to attack more or do anything special at all. Literally all we had to do was keep possession a bit better to take some of the pace out of the game. It was t that Leeds suddenly transformed into Real Madrid it was because we were so poor at keeping the ball we allowed them on to us.

Watch our games under Karanka, we won so many after going a goal up because of how well we controlled and dictated the game after the goal.

On Saturday we had no ‘exit plan’ to get back into shape and push higher up the pitch, Leeds had the freedom of 2 thirds of the pitch almost all 2nd half, which we allowed by letting them have so much of the ball.
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caseybwoy Posted on 12/02/2019 16:05

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
It’s about momentum. We looked strong and on the whole comfortable, bringing basic and Clayton on just ruined any sort of momentum we had. We had a game plan and it was working when Wing and Saville were on the field. Then we bring Besic and Clayton on, two players that have been terrible recently not to mention involved with an altrication with the fans midweek. Bringing Britt on as a like for like with Hugill when we have no intention of getting another goal didn’t do us any favours either. Also did the Downing contract saga resolve itself ? Because 1 of 2 things needs to happen pay him the money seen as though once again we bought sweet f all this transfer window or put tav on the bench as having a Downing on a bench when you’re never gonna play him seems like insanity. That being said for 65 minutes I think we were by far the better team, just tactical mistakes on and off on the field cost us.
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JLinardi Posted on 12/02/2019 16:07

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
Downing’s contract doesn’t affect sub appearances, he could have came on and probably should have. Using the ball well is what he’s good at.
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American_Mary Posted on 12/02/2019 16:44

Mathematics of defending a 1-0 lead

 
Under Karanka we also conceded late equalisers, Gestede’s for Blackburn and Keane’s for Burnley are two that spring to mind, I think if you looked at the data I suspect both managers will have similar records with seeing games out whilst at Boro.

It’s obviously massively disappointing but I think we are better than most in the division at protecting leads.
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