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bollingtonblue Posted on 06/01/2020 11:50
POINTS FOR LEAGUE SURVIVAL

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With less than half the season to go we are again looking towards protecting our league status - largely due to the six and possibly eventually 10 point deduction. So how many points will we need to stay in the league for another season and hopefully a fresh start under new ownership?
With only one team being relegated from league two this season we just have to finish 23rd or higher. It looks as though Morecambe and Stevenage are the two to stay above and they have just 18 points each from their 25 games so far. If they both manage say 1.2 points per game for their remaining fixtures they would finish on 43 points. I suspect that one of them will not do that well, but lets say that our target is 44 points (54 points with a 10 point deduction). So we need 25 more points from 22 games which is 1.14 points per game (equivalent to a full season finish on 52 points).
So I reckon we need at least 6 to 7 wins plus some draws from our remaining 22 games.
It is possible that somewhat less than that will be enough if either Morecambe or Stevenage finish poorly.
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oilboil Posted on 06/01/2020 11:59
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44 wouldn't be a safe target in a normal season - but with only one relegated this year it probably will just be enough to keep us in.

The bigger issue is whether or not we make the maths irrelevant by striking/non-payment issues reoccurring
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leighmacc Posted on 06/01/2020 12:14
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Also how many of the squad are still here at the start of February.
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saltpie Posted on 06/01/2020 14:59
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I am on the one game at a time theory.
If the club goes bust as many including myself fear the number of points we have is irrelevant
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Blackpoolshrimp Posted on 06/01/2020 15:03
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Don`t worry about us - there is no way we will reach 40 points
If we get to 30 / 32 we will be very lucky
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lythamandblues Posted on 06/01/2020 21:38
POINTS FOR LEAGUE SURVIVAL
Edited On: 07/01/2020 09:46
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As leighmacc and saltpie note, at the moment, any thoughts beyond the next game would appear to be fanciful thinking.

For what it's worth (probably nothing), before points deductions, and despite the considerable off field issues they've had to endure, the team have picked up 9 points more than at the same point (24 matches) last season.

With just 1 relegation place this season, if the Club had a fit & proper owner, the team should be looking onwards and upwards rather than worrying when, or even IF, their next pay packet will arrive, where they are going to sleep etc.

The 6 point deduction so far still puts them 3 points 'up' on last season, but with a further 4 suspended (which it seems most people think will be enforced due to the cancellation of the Plymouth fixture), and, in accordance with EFL rule 12.3.1 "If any Club becomes subject to or suffers an Insolvency Event, that Club shall be deducted 12 points.", a further points deduction being a distinct possibility, especially in the absence of any update from ‘the glorious leader’ since 07-Dec (apart from confirming that the Plymouth game would go ahead!) despite having been in “advanced negotiations with various third parties” – any players that remain may be facing a 22 point deduction in total to overcome.
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Dobby Posted on 07/01/2020 09:39
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Lythamandblues.
You paint a sorry but truthful picture of the current situation.
Only a personal opinion but I would accept relegation to the National league in return for the survival of the the present club, playing at The Moss under a new owner.
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oilboil Posted on 07/01/2020 10:11
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If we haven't sorted the ownership issue and payment of players by the end of the season (and especially if we have triggered the insolvency points deduction clause) I would be very surprised if the Conference (National League) would allow us membership.

Basically (until/unless a new owner is put in place) our only option to be a club next year is to stay up - I honestly believe the Conference would deny us access in our current state
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saltpie Posted on 07/01/2020 11:31
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I have a further concern to that , if we do survive to the end of the season the players will have to be paid until the end of their contracts with hardly any income .
Season ticket money has been used early for the past few years and this season unless there is a takeover I cannot see this as a source as no one in their right mind would renew under the present circumstances
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gtmacc Posted on 07/01/2020 11:53
POINTS FOR LEAGUE SURVIVAL
Edited On: 07/01/2020 11:56
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We probably need a fair few points with all our deductions, at least 40 i'd say with teams struggling strengthening and us weakening over the next few weeks.

Going to be a tall order for us even if we survive all the other stuff going on
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bollingtonblue Posted on 11/01/2020 20:42
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No real upturn in recent results from Stevenage or Morecambe so I reckon with 20 games to play that the bottom team may only get 44 points at the most and possibly less.
So with 21 games left just a point per game average would see us finish on 45 points. This team is easily capable of that but a few wins will be needed from somewhere - not many if we keep drawing with most teams.
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boomer22 Posted on 11/01/2020 22:46
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May get points back yet so could be midtable if the deal gets done and we have no further upsets.
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macchiavelli Posted on 19/01/2020 14:36
POINTS FOR LEAGUE SURVIVAL
Edited On: 19/01/2020 14:37
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We are currently 2 points above the bottom 2, Morecambe and Stevenage, but, crucially, we have 2 games in hand of both those clubs.

I don't know what deductions the EFL is still going to hit us with now, but, unless we are able to bring in a few strategic signings, maybe the best course is to follow the 'McMahon Doctrine', and try to grind out 1 point per game and inch toward survival?
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bollingtonblue Posted on 19/01/2020 15:00
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If our points deduction stays at 6 then a point per game average to the end of the season would get us to 44 points. That may be enough... just, but to achieve even that we will have to win a few to make up for some losses for sure.
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macchiavelli Posted on 19/01/2020 15:15
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I am struggling to see where both Morecambe and Stevenage would get to 44 points from where they are now to finish above us.

Sooner we can get those points on the board, the better.
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boomer22 Posted on 19/01/2020 21:25
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Don't think Carlisle or Cambridge are safe as their form is bobbins at the moment and that could easily continue.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 19/01/2020 23:26
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The form tables show that over the past 10 games:
Macc 10 points
Stevenage 8 points
Morecambe 8 points
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bollingtonblue Posted on 26/01/2020 23:56
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I still reckon that 44 points remains the target to be sure of avoiding relegation. That is based on Stevenage and Morecambe both getting 1.25 points per game over their remaining fixtures - taking them to 43 or 44 points.
A point per game for Macc over our remaining 18 games gets us to 46 points (with a 6 point deduction) and almost certain safety. So just 4 more wins and 6 draws or 5 wins and 3 draws should be enough, although I think we will do better than that.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 26/01/2020 23:57
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I still reckon that 44 points remains the target to be sure of avoiding relegation. That is based on Stevenage and Morecambe both getting 1.25 points per game over their remaining fixtures - taking them to 43 or 44 points.
A point per game for Macc over our remaining 18 games gets us to 46 points (with a 6 point deduction) and almost certain safety. So just 4 more wins and 6 draws or 5 wins and 3 draws should be enough, although I think we will do better than that.
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lymeview Posted on 27/01/2020 08:07
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It is important that we don't lose any players before the deadline. although Paddy may want to go. Really we could do with signing a couple of players if possible.
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Fola Posted on 27/01/2020 09:57
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MK mentioned that Paddy is currently unsettled and clubs are in for him.
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leighmacc Posted on 27/01/2020 15:17
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Last season we had 4/5 points more than the bottom two do now after 29 games and only got to 44 points by the end.
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lymeview Posted on 27/01/2020 16:04
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Not many of last season's team would get into the side we have now.
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maccman Posted on 27/01/2020 16:32
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There’s a league predictor table on the Grimsby site. You can enter as many or few results you want to predict over the remainder of the season and the computer will fill in the remaining fixtures and produce a final table. I ran it umpteen times letting the computer fill in all the results. We never came out in the bottom 2 ,usually not in the bottom 4. More interestingly, the bottom side never exceeded 42 points,often less than 40.
Stevenage most often bottom,Morecambe less so, Cambridge once !
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bollingtonblue Posted on 02/02/2020 00:00
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All three bottom clubs lost today. Stevenage now do look unlikely to get 40 points. They have 15 games remaining and with say 1.2 points per game (the most I suspect they could achieve) they would finish on 40 points.
I therefore think a safe target for survival is now 42 points which we could achieve with only 0.85 points per game. This is just:
2 wins and 8 draws or
3 wins and 5 draws or
4 wins and 2 draws
This all assumes our points deduction remains as it is at 6 points.


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boomer22 Posted on 02/02/2020 00:02
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Will go for the middle option and maybe a few more points to be sure.
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leighmacc Posted on 02/02/2020 10:39
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None of the Stevenage deadline day signings played for them yesterday so they could have a sting in the tail yet.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 09/02/2020 12:34
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With Stevenage losing again yesterday it looks increasingly likely that they will struggle to get to 40 points. Even if they managed 1.5 points per game for their remaining 14 matches they would finish on just 43 points. I think 40 points remains a target that will secure us safety. The final points deduction will obviously be important.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 12/02/2020 08:50
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Well losing to Morecambe last night puts the focus even more on Stevenage. They lost yet again which reinforces the likelihood of them failing to get to even 40 points in total.
We still need 2 or 3 wins plus a few draws from our remaining 14 games. Seems simple but wins seem elusive at the moment and our new players are having to find their feet.
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oilboil Posted on 12/02/2020 09:29
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The other way to look at it is that if we haul every player bar ironside back into the 6 yard box and defend like our lives depend on we could draw every game and just sneak the 43 point total.

Who knows maybe even sneak an unlikely win with a shock clearance to an Ironside who goes on a glory solo run (has to be solo the rest of the team never leave our penalty area so that they can defend 100%)
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boomer22 Posted on 12/02/2020 19:10
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Oh we are getting cynical! Hopefully we can relax with a few games to go and start playing open football!
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macchiavelli Posted on 13/02/2020 10:09
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I don't think you'll see much 'open football' in the next few games, looking at our opponents.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 15/02/2020 23:52
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The three at the bottom all lost again so we remain 7 points clear of Stevenage - or probably 8 as our goal difference is far better.
If Stevenage continue in their final 12 games with the same points per game average of 0.65 they will finish on just 30 points.
If they manage 1 point per game they will reach 34 points, 1.25ppg would get them to 37 points and 1.5 ppg would see them reach 40 points. I think 40 points is now the most they can realistically reach and 36 points is my best prediction.
Just 7 more points from 13 games is possibly all we will require to stay off the bottom place (with our 6 point deduction remaining).
But I really hope we can produce a stronger finish than that!
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zelem Posted on 15/02/2020 23:57
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Think we ate defeating the object here! , everyone is talking about points for survival when we would have been safe until we had a points deduction; so look at the route cause and look at yourselves if you’re still going!
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bollingtonblue Posted on 22/02/2020 21:56
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Stevenage continued their losing run again so remain on 22 points with just 11 games to play. At 1.5 points per game they would finish on 38 points but that would require a dramatic improvement on their recent form. A more likely scenario is that they manage a point a game and reach 33 points. I reckon as low as 35 points will probably be enough to stay off the bottom, possibly less. So just 5 more points should do it (if our points deduction remains at 6). A couple of wins and a couple of draws and we will be on 38 points and almost certain safety.
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macchiavelli Posted on 25/02/2020 10:33
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Edited On: 25/02/2020 10:49
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I would agree with that. With 11 games to play, we are 8 points (effectively 9 with GD) ahead of Stevenage.

We really should be capable of maintaining that gap now.

I suppose the danger is 'new manager syndrome', if they can bring in someone who can inspire a couple of quick wins.

We play them at home a couple of games before end of season which should be to our advantage.

Looking further down the line. If we survive next to bottom and move into next season, what are the prospects?

I can't see anything positive, can you?

Unless something radically changes, I think the likelihood of yet another season of no investment by our parasitic owner, and crumbling infrastructure at the ground will severely impact any ST sales, and grind down the will of even the most positive and diehard Macc fans.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 25/02/2020 10:48
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There are lots of unknowns about next season - even if we stay in League Two.
1. Who will be the owner?
2. Will Kennedy still be the manager or will someone else be appointed?
3. Will there be a decent budget in the close season for new signings?
4. How many of the existing squad will stay or will we want to keep?
5. Will there be the cash for a complete pitch renewal?
6. Will any points deductions be carried over to next season?
and last but not least...
7. Will we get more than 2 portaloos on the London Road side?
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macchiavelli Posted on 25/02/2020 10:59
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I think most of the points you make will be largely dependent upon the outcome of question 1, bb.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 29/02/2020 19:18
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Are we heading for some kind of record.... the lowest number of points obtained by a club that is not relegated?
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boomer22 Posted on 29/02/2020 19:37
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Will we all die of Corona or just boredom and frustration?
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bollingtonblue Posted on 29/02/2020 20:36
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We are now bottom of the last 8 games league table with just 2 points from a possible 24.
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boomer22 Posted on 29/02/2020 20:51
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Yes grim and not enjoying it at all is this supposed to be entertainment?
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bollingtonblue Posted on 01/03/2020 12:01
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We play Stevenage at home on Saturday 13th April. Hopefully we will be safe by then. If not that game will be pretty important to say the least. After that there will be just 2 games remaining.
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