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bollingtonblue Posted on 10/10/2018 03:25
POINTS PER GAME

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If 48 points are required to escape relegation we require 44 more from 34 games which is an average of 1.3 per game. That is equivalent to reaching 60 points in a full season.
We have to find 12 wins and 8 draws or 13 wins and 5 draws from somewhere.
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silkmanofHAT Posted on 12/10/2018 07:36
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Absolutely no chance. Can't wait to get back to the conference and offload the XXXXXXe summer signings. I think we will have a completely new squad next year but at least be back at a more comfortable level. Anyway... The coverage is better. There is a non league paper which I enjoyed and often radio coverage. League 2 is trousers!
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macchiavelli Posted on 12/10/2018 08:33
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Edited On: 12/10/2018 08:53
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That is probably at the heart of the problem. We have made NL signings and expect them to compete in L2.

I really don't want to go back to non-league again and throw away all SJA and the heroes of last season fought tooth and nail for, but getting anywhere near an average of 1.3 points per game, from our current 0.33 ppg (pre Tranmere) is a huge ask.
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metz1984 Posted on 12/10/2018 13:21
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More chance of racing a toy rocking horse than getting that many points..
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maccman Posted on 12/10/2018 13:33
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I'm not optimistic but think we're looking at this from the wrong viewpoint. It's about finishing above at least 2 other sides rather than the 50 points holy Grail. There are currently 6 sides averaging less than a point per game - it could turn out that well less than 50 points is needed. Again, I'm not optimistic given our squad ( and why is it that it's always the better players that get injuries ? ) but to an incoming new manager, we're just 5 points from safety.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 13/10/2018 03:57
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In October 2006 Paul Ince was appointed manager of Macc Town when we were bottom of the league with no wins and I think 7 points. We finished on 48 points and escaped relegation. So recovery from our present situation is possible.
1.33 points per game average is now required over our remaining 33 games to reach 48 points.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 24/10/2018 13:11
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It looks pretty hopeless after last night's drubbing which I fortuitously missed. But the figures show we now probably need 41 more points from 31 remaining games which is 1.3 points per game. I reckon until it gets to 1.5 ppg there is still something to hold on to.
1.3ppg is equivalent to 60 points in a full season which last season would have produced a 14th place finish. So lower mid table form is what is required. I suspect it all hinges on who can be signed in January and not being completely detached by then.
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macchiavelli Posted on 24/10/2018 14:12
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Edited On: 24/10/2018 14:18
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Your maths are good bb, but I just can't see any evidence of improvement ATM. 0.466 ppg so far. I think we will be dead and buried by January from what I have seen up to now. [V]

Never mind, the OS says that Christmas Party tickets are selling well. That's all that matters, surely?
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bollingtonblue Posted on 24/10/2018 14:36
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I suggest that if we have say 14 points by January we may still be in with a shout if we can sign some better players.
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macchiavelli Posted on 24/10/2018 14:41
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Edited On: 24/10/2018 14:42
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That presupposes we have the money to do it, and someone in the managers chair who knows which players to sign.

I wish I could be optimistic, but I will hope for the best.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 27/10/2018 21:21
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After another loss we now need 1.4 points per game to the end of the season to get to 48 points. It's rapidly moving towards an impossible ask.
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imlosingit Posted on 27/10/2018 21:51
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a new manager quick or we are doomed.its a joke now we are a laughing stock..
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macchiavelli Posted on 28/10/2018 08:22
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I think we have 9 more league games before January, so we would have played 25 games for our theoretical 14 points.

That would leave us a further 21 games to attain the 48 point safety zone, equating to a 1.62 points per game average.

That would be some turnaround!
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bollingtonblue Posted on 28/10/2018 10:35
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I think you are right MV. We need to get at least a point per game until January getting us to 16 points minimum and possibly a couple more so lets'say the target is 18 points by January and then some new signings.
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imlosingit Posted on 28/10/2018 10:54
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and then some new signings mmmmm
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macchiavelli Posted on 28/10/2018 12:17
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Dear Santa.......
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JH23 Posted on 28/10/2018 13:28
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If we can get to 18 points (and at the moment I do not see where those points are coming from) we will need one hell of a January.

We will need two centre backs, two centre midfielders, two strikers and a winger. I reckon a conservative estimate would be 7 players.

We can then send Kelleher back to Oxford, Grimes can be released/loaned out, MayXXXXXX can go back to Coventry and Wilson and Marsh can be released/loaned out.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 01/11/2018 22:49
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Last season Morecambe escaped relegation with 46 points on goal difference and won just 9 games all season but did manage 19 draws. I would say that the absolute minimum number of wins we will need to survive is 10 and it is more likely that 11 or 12 will be required with an adequate number of draws.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 03/11/2018 17:48
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Oh dear! Another defeat with four goals conceded. 1.4 points per game now needed from the remaining 29 games to reach 48 points. This is getting more impossible as each game passes. January seems a long way away and at this rate will be too late to rescue the season even with some better new signings.
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boomer22 Posted on 03/11/2018 18:57
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Put your calculator away we are screwed.
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macchiavelli Posted on 03/11/2018 19:38
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Edited On: 03/11/2018 19:49
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MK Dons up next in the league. 2nd in the table, only lost once in 17, best defence in the league, and thrashed Crawley 4-0 away today.

Are we all confident then? [|)][cr]

You might need your calculator to keep track of the score, bb.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 04/11/2018 07:57
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Just to emphasise the magnitude of our task of reaching 48 points that will require something like one of the following from our remaining 29 games:
10 wins with 11 draws and 8 defeats
11 wins with 8 draws and 10 defeats
12 wins with 5 draws and 12 defeats
13 wins with 2 draws and 14 defeats
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bollingtonblue Posted on 17/11/2018 18:14
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With the expected defeat at MK Dons that leaves us needing 41 points from 28 games to reach 48 points. That is now 1.46 points per game, equivalent to 67 points for a whole season. Last season 67 points would have delivered a 10th place finish.
I suggested some time ago that if the points per game reached 1.5 than the chances of us achieving it we're very slim indeed. We are almost at that point and some wins in our next few games are absolutely vital or our relegation back to the National League will be a certainty before Christmas.
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macchiavelli Posted on 17/11/2018 18:43
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This will have to be the biggest recovery since Lazarus! We couldn't even score on 5 of our last 7 league outings.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 17/11/2018 18:56
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To brighten the mood a tad I can report that in some seasons considerably less points than 48 were enough for teams to avoid relegation from League Two.
In 08/09 38 points were enough (but a number of clubs had points deductions)
In 09/10 and 11/12 45 points were enough
In 14/15 42 points were enough
And in 15/16 a mere 35 points delivered survival.
So just possibly a total of say 45 points could deliver survival. That would require 1.35 points per game from here on.
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supermacc Posted on 18/11/2018 00:15
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Itís difficult to second guess the points total that will be required to reach safety though at least Cheltenham and Notts County are accruing points at a rate of less than one per game. Quite often a team will fall from midtable and end up entering the mix.

28 games left so no point throwing the towel in. Danny sounds in a positive state of mind with his focus firmly on Yeovil and getting us back on track.

Against all odds!
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bollingtonblue Posted on 19/11/2018 22:29
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We have 7 games before the January transfer window. It has been noted earlier in this thread that a target of 18 points by January is really required for us to have any chance of escaping relegation with a strengthened squad after that.
So for the next 7 games we must get 1.5 points per game, which probably means we need to win at least 3 of those 7 games plus getting 2 draws. If we fall much short of this target I am afraid we will be too far behind to catch up, even if we get some good new players in in January.
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silkmanofHAT Posted on 20/11/2018 08:58
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Players won't want to come to a club that is indefinitely going down. Blower and Amar know this which is why they won't be interested in signing any quality... That combined with the fact that anyone of quality would not want to come and experience a potentially career damaging episode at Macc means all this talk of January being the month that saves the silkmen is futile. Let's have it right... We now have an extra long break as we may as well treat the rest of the season like practice games. We should be looking at the remainder as a chance go build fitness, experience etc so we have a decent chance of not being relegated twice. As someone mentioned on this forum 4 go down from the conference and this current squad would probably be in that 4 at the moment. Let's concentrate on forgetting this league nonsense and building our side back up for non league football. Which I think the fans prefer anyway... It is not boring like this long ball, point preserving rubbish. If you go up you need to go up twice, that's not goi g to happen for Macc until investment and more fans come. Having said that, us regulars didn't like it at the end of last season when 'tourists' came to stand in our usual spots.
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leedsblue Posted on 20/11/2018 10:05
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28 games to go. Sorry I don't agree everyone should just give up now, despite the bleak outlook.
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macchiavelli Posted on 20/11/2018 11:06
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Edited On: 20/11/2018 11:16
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bb, you are saying, 'So for the next 7 games we must get 1.5 points per game'

You previously said,'I suggested some time ago that if the points per game (required) reached 1.5 than the chances of us achieving it were very slim indeed.'

So we need to get from the next 7, what you agree would be unlikely for the rest of the season.

The 7 we have upcoming are...

Yeovil H (17th)
Exeter A (6th)
Colchester A (4th)
Crawley H (13th)
Port Vale H (16th)
Notts C A (23rd)
Carlisle A (11th)

I am finding it very difficult to see where 3 wins and 2 draws will come from out of those. Though I am ever hopeful!
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bollingtonblue Posted on 20/11/2018 11:59
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Yes Macch I am now of the opinion that our chances of survival are very slim indeed, but would become almost impossible if we don't get to about 18 points by the end of December.
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macchiavelli Posted on 22/11/2018 07:51
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I think Yeovil on Saturday is starting to assume the dimensions of a 'must win' game. Maybe not mathematically, but given that the following 2 are both grindingly long away trips to teams in the top 6.

A home draw will only increase the PPG needed to get to 48.
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Dobby Posted on 22/11/2018 09:59
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Macchiavelli,
Please don't call it a "must win" game, we've lost all the "must win" games so far.
Keep the faith.👍
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Ron_Ipstone Posted on 22/11/2018 10:43
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Can't see anything other than a deluge of goals.
Macc Town 4 (if not more)- Glovers 1.

The only fly in the proverbial is that there will be thousands missing because of the boycott.
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silktown Posted on 22/11/2018 10:53
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Including "you" [:P]
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bollingtonblue Posted on 24/11/2018 18:20
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That second win of the season takes us to 10 points. If 48 points remains the target then 38 more points are required from 27 games which is 1.4 points per game.
10 more wins with 8 draws would do it or
11 wins and 5 draws.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 26/11/2018 08:56
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We all know that one swallow does not make a summer. Welcome as the home win against Yeovil was we still have a mountain to climb. Even if we won our next 4 games we would still not have achieved a point per game average for the season and would probably still be in a relegation spot with 22 points from 23 games. Sometime between now and May next year we will probably have to achieve a very good unbeaten run of 5 or 6 games if we are to reach 48 points.
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macchiavelli Posted on 26/11/2018 09:37
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Think we will do very well indeed to get anything out of the next 2 games, but it's good to see the graph heading South for a change! [^]
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bollingtonblue Posted on 27/11/2018 22:01
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With two wins on the trot and 6 points added to our meagre points total things are looking more achievable. A 48 point target now requires 35 more points from 26 games which is 1.35 points per game. That's equivalent to a 62 point finish in a full season which last season would have got you a 13th place finish. So solid mid table form from now on and we will be safe.... Probably!
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macchiavelli Posted on 09/12/2018 09:03
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Up to 1.40 again after the Colchester defeat.

We need to make some inroads into this now with consecutive home games against Crawley (16th) and Vale (15th).
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bollingtonblue Posted on 11/12/2018 07:39
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I would say that at least 4 points from the next two home games is vital and 6 points would be very encouraging. If we can get two wins we will be on 19 points with 23 games remaining. A target of 48 points would mean requiring 29 points at an average of 1.26 points per game which is definitely achievable and a great Christmas present.
Lose those two games and we would need 35 points more at 1.52 points per game which is play-off level form.
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Silkfantastic Posted on 11/12/2018 13:25
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No pressure then [8D]
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macchiavelli Posted on 11/12/2018 14:30
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Have to say that we have created our own pressure with 1 win in the first 18 league games.

Let's see a win on Saturday to move us forward. [^]
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