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bollingtonblue Posted on 15/10/2017 17:17
Can we win the league?

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With one third of the season gone we are sitting pretty at the top of the League but with a large number of teams close behind us. The bookies don't fancy our chances and odds of 25/1 on us being Champions are still available. They give six other sides a greater chance of finishing top than Macc.
I can't make up my mind whether I should start dreaming of League football again or just calm down and expect us to tail off at some point. Any views from the faithful on here?
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WillMill Posted on 15/10/2017 17:29
Can we win the league?

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Five or six other sides have been top of the table before us. Our past performances in the last third of the season and small number of punters prepared to back Macc. explains the present odds. If we were to be still on top of the table at the start of November then watch the odds fall.[;)]
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steveo_macc Posted on 15/10/2017 19:12
Can we win the league?

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All depends on what happens in January. If we keep everyone together then I reckon definitely in the top 3 finish
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metz1984 Posted on 15/10/2017 19:21
Can we win the league?

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Its all about keeping the team together,and also we need luck on the injury front,big problem is we have a small squad as well,i reckon we wont win it but play offs a sure possibility..
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silkman131 Posted on 15/10/2017 19:39
Can we win the league?

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I think we can win it, providing we can keep our players. We have a couple who could be snapped up in January if we can't afford to reject offers.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 15/10/2017 21:33
Can we win the league?

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My feeling is that if we don't win the league we will not get promoted via the play offs.
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Roque_Del_Alessandro Posted on 15/10/2017 23:59
Can we win the league?

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Under the new playoff rules, the teams finishing 2nd or 3th need to win 1 home game and then the final.
The teams finishing from 4th-7th all need to win 3 matches to win the 2nd promotion place.

So the target must be to finish in the top 3.
And given how even the table has been so far, this season looks a really good opportunity.

But we've been really lucky to gain so many points for so few goals. Scott Wilson looks like he's up to the job, but we need Marsh or Toure to start scoring more regularly.
Alternatively, some new striker (which obviously costs money - maybe a cup run might provide it?).
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AP_Macc Posted on 16/10/2017 10:05
Can we win the league?

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It still seems at the very least a long shot, but I guess I would have said the same about being top after 15 games. You can definitely argue the squad is better this year but we’re actually only one point better off than we were at the same stage last season.

As others have pointed out it’s the second half/final third of the season where we struggle – either through holding on to our better players or the effects of fatigue on a smaller squad. Not sure how we can limit these risks.

If it remains such a tight league we won’t be the only ones who see this as a chance to seize the opportunity and there are obviously those with bigger budgets to gamble with – though that’s not done them much good so far.
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Kendo-Nagasaki Posted on 16/10/2017 11:05
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We play nice expansive football on the decent grounds that last till October/ November but as pitches start to cut up we struggle to keep playing the same way as the pitches get bobblier and more rutted
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toddymacc Posted on 17/10/2017 12:53
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I think we are doing well and as Kendo says we play good football
But I think we are short of a few players from the squad:

- A genuine defensive midfielder that has the discipline to sit and protect the back 2 and can compete aerially. It looked like Richards could be that player but it hasn't worked out as yet

- A target man type of striker, with more of a physical prescence that can hold the ball up and allow us to play out games where we have a lead. Marsh and Wilson do this well considering their size, but both require decent service to create chances. When we have to go long and the balls forward are more aimless it doesn't suit them

- Another winger with pace who can beat a man. This would take the pressure off Durell who is the main source of our creativity.

That is not to say we can't stay where we are without those players, but I would feel a lot more confident with them
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saltpie Posted on 17/10/2017 13:40
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I'd think a right back/wing back is the priority, if Hodgkiss gets injured there is no adequate cover.
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toddymacc Posted on 17/10/2017 14:55
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I think Baba can do a decent job there as could Mitch if he swapped flanks

The three players I mentioned, I dont think we have a player of that type in the squad at all
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WillMill Posted on 17/10/2017 16:02
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Where might Josh Thompson fit in?
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saltpie Posted on 17/10/2017 17:07
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I presume you didn't see the Maidstone game when Baba looked like a fish out of water at full back.
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Kendo-Nagasaki Posted on 17/10/2017 17:08
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The question might be- when might Josh Thompson be fit
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pauljames Posted on 17/10/2017 17:19
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Thompson is doing plenty of running up and down the touch line before home games, but not so much proper stuff out in the middle with the rest of the squad. He's either being very carefully prepared for a return, or his recovery from what was a very serious injury is not going well. Curiously, he was one of the first signings, which suggests it was well considered, rather than realising three days before the season started that we were short of central defenders.
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Skolender Posted on 17/10/2017 18:44
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I spoke to Byron on Friday and he told me he was having another operation. Dont expect to see him anytime soon sadly.
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MenorahTableofShowbread Posted on 17/10/2017 20:14
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Baba's first appearance at RB was not great - he seemed not to understand the position - but in his subsequent appearances he did ok.

I would guess that Thompson was a low cost, long term gamble, knowing that if he came through we might have a very good CB who felt some loyalty towards us for next season.

As far as where we need to strengthen, if we had an extra £1500 pw I would spend the lot on a big proven striker. Not a criticism of Wilson, Marsh or Toure, more a change of style for the winter months.
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Fola Posted on 18/10/2017 10:03
Can we win the league?

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If we can get 4 points out of Orient and Dag I would be very pleased.
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crazyface Posted on 18/10/2017 10:09
Can we win the league?

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"Under the new playoff rules, the teams finishing 2nd or 3th need to win 1 home game and then the final.
The teams finishing from 4th-7th all need to win 3 matches to win the 2nd promotion place."

WHAT!!!!? [rle]
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macchiavelli Posted on 18/10/2017 10:17
Can we win the league?
Edited On: 18/10/2017 10:23
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The exact mechanism is open to debate, but it seems reasonable to me that a team finishing higher in the league on merit after 46 games deserves to have some advantage in the final outcome?

At the end of the day, this is just a device to generate extra interest and revenue towards the end of the season.

The easiest, and arguably fairest option would simply be to promote the top 2.

I suppose the next 'innovation' will be Scottish style relegation playoffs as well.
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Roque_Del_Alessandro Posted on 18/10/2017 13:09
Can we win the league?

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There will now be six play-off spots available for teams finishing second to seventh.

Teams finishing second and third will automatically proceed to a 1 legged semi final at their home ground.


Teams finishing in fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh will play a one-game qualifying round.

All two-legged games are to be scrapped.

i.e.
4v7 & 5v6
then
2v (4or7)& 3 v (5or6)

Assuming that home teams win 60% whereas away teams win 40% of the time, and the final is 50%-50%,
the percentage chances of promotion are:
2nd 30%
3rd 30%
4th 12%
5th 12%
6th 8%
7th 8%

These percentages need raising for the higher ranked teams because they are generally better teams than the 6th & 7th teams in particular. So the team finishing 2nd might have nearer to a 40% chance.

But obviously, you want to finish:
1st with a 100% chance of promotion[^]
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bollingtonblue Posted on 18/10/2017 23:00
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Good and informative calculations RdA. Thanks.
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Roque_Del_Alessandro Posted on 19/10/2017 20:11
Can we win the league?

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In summary, the targets are:
- 7th place for some end-of-season interest & an outside chance of promotion
- 3rd place for a good chance of promotion
- 1st place to be sure

Oddly, it may be better tactics to finish 3rd rather than 2nd
because the 3rd team will expect a home semi-final against the 5th team
whereas the 2nd team will expect a home semi-final against the 4th team.
[?]
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Ron_Ipstone Posted on 19/10/2017 20:30
Can we win the league?

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Are you sure you have got it the right way round?

According to the Hartlepool Utd website it is the other way round and the 3rd club is at home to the the winner of 4th v 7th and the 2nd is at home to the winner of 5th v 6th.

Which would make more sense.

Link: Play offs
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Roque_Del_Alessandro Posted on 19/10/2017 22:07
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Yes, I'd got it the wrong way round from some website or other (might have been Chester FC or Wikipedia).

Anyway, The National League's own rules (http://www.thenationalleague.org.uk/articles/league-rules-1013) match what you say.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 22/10/2017 13:14
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Well the bookies have caught up with our position 3 points clear at the top. The best odds being quoted are now 12/1 for us to win the league with most companies only quoting 8/1. We are now thought by the bookies to be equal 4th favourites behind Sutton, Dagenham and Dover.
Did anyone get a bet on at 25/1 ?
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pontiuspilate Posted on 23/10/2017 18:11
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Took a punt after Wrexham game £25 E/W @ 33/1 with Bet Victor [^]
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bollingtonblue Posted on 24/10/2017 09:47
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I see JA is calling for a further budget so that he can strengthen the small squad if we are to maintain our table topping position. Surely if we are to get back in to League 2 this season looks like it and a couple of new players is a sensible move.
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macchiavelli Posted on 24/10/2017 10:32
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Absolutely agree. This season is shaping up to be the best chance we have had for a long time to progress back into the FL.

So where will the money come from?
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Ron_Ipstone Posted on 24/10/2017 10:46
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Maybe another boycott is the answer. Macc have not lost since the last one which also forced Amar and Sir Fergie to show their faces at the Moss.
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silktown Posted on 24/10/2017 11:15
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When are you away again Ron ? [;)]
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Ron_Ipstone Posted on 24/10/2017 11:31
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No holidays planned for the near future, but without too much inconvenience to myself, I could go to the Man City v Feyenoord match on 21 November and boycott the Macc v Tranmere game
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boomer22 Posted on 24/10/2017 14:12
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As if they need the money!
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Andrew_J97 Posted on 24/10/2017 14:31
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Can't believe I'm reading that plans for another boycott are underway whilst we're top of the league and our owner has just paid off our debts.
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onetwo07 Posted on 24/10/2017 14:54
Can we win the league?
Edited On: 24/10/2017 14:54
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That's exactly the time to boycott in order to maintain our current momentum.

I regret that having not got to as many games as I would've liked just recently it might be difficult for me to help arrange or attend, however.
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JH23 Posted on 24/10/2017 15:11
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Difficult to see what JA can do to add to the squad at present. He could recall Richards to increase midfield options. Loans are trickier as the parent club would want them to play and Askey is unlikely to want to change the current side. He might have to wait until January.
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WillMill Posted on 24/10/2017 15:13
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Andrew you won't remember the boycott in '96. I don't know whether Ron was involved but attendances went up.[;)]
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bollingtonblue Posted on 24/10/2017 15:43
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If we win again tonight at Dagenham and Redbridge then we will have beaten two of the favourites for promotion in consecutive away games. Then everyone will start thinking the unthinkable!
Somehow AA and the board needs to find a bit more cash for the January transfer window. Maybe the home gates will start to go up and that will allow the budget to increase a bit?
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The_Boss Posted on 24/10/2017 16:37
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Funny how our form got much more consistent once Richards was loaned out, always looked to be our weakest summer signing.

Ron's boycotts are tremendous, I wonder when he'll boycott digging up old threads from yesteryear?
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silktown Posted on 24/10/2017 16:43
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He's got to be "on something" [;)]
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jefft Posted on 24/10/2017 17:08
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And the higher our profile, the more the vultures with bags of cash will circle in January. We HAVE to hang on to a winning team (assuming we still are by then) rather than sell key players to stay afloat/repay investments.......
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JH23 Posted on 24/10/2017 17:12
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If the right offer comes in then we will have no choice but to sell. Durrell is on a 2 year deal, so if anyone is wanting him they will have to pay Danny Rowe money and then some more!

Durrell and Wilson are most likely to be attracting attention at present. JA and the board need to have a clear contingency plan if one or two do leave in January, not like lase year where it seemed to come as a bit of a surprise!
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AP_Macc Posted on 24/10/2017 17:13
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Just to be clear on the points above - there's no transfer window for us signing players. Any theoretical cash injection could be spent immediately.

The window does remain for the League so our assets will still be under threat then (but already are open to big spending national league rivals I guess)
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imlosingit Posted on 24/10/2017 22:14
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We won't even get in the playoffs,the squad is not big enough.. Same as last season

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macchiavelli Posted on 25/10/2017 08:28
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I have some sympathy with that view. We have a squad of, I think, 19. There are currently, hopefully short term, injuries to Jalal, Hodgkiss and Thompson.

This must make life very difficult for JA and severely limit his planning for specific games. By contrast, the Daggers had a 26 player squad last night, with no less than 8 strikers to choose from.

You still need the right players and the right manager to make it work, but there is no doubt in my mind that this kind of edge is bound to have an effect over 46 hard league games.

I think the play-offs are possible on what I've seen so far, but the odds, as usual, are stacked against us in the absence of better financial backing.
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JH23 Posted on 25/10/2017 12:55
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It is 46 league games, but then you need to factor in FA cup games and then the FA Trophy. I don't know the exact figure, but I would think we must have been close to 60 fixtures last season.

JA needs a few more bodies to cover injuries and also to allow him to rotate and rest the likes of Whitaker and Pilkington.

The likes of Scott Boden aren't featuring for their clubs at the moment, maybe JA can use his contacts to bring a couple in... If we have the funds.
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macchiavelli Posted on 25/10/2017 14:28
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'If we have the funds.' There's the rub.
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metz1984 Posted on 25/10/2017 14:38
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Exactly,if we have the funds Mr Amar??
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bollingtonblue Posted on 26/10/2017 16:15
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I think we could go top again on Saturday afternoon. Dover have the long trip to Gateshead and could well drop points there. If Dover lose we will go top with a draw or a win against Eastleigh at Moss Rose. Come on Mr Watson, do us a favour!
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crazyface Posted on 27/10/2017 10:38
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Remind me again how many players Aston Villa used to win the First Division? [rle]
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macchiavelli Posted on 27/10/2017 14:35
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That was 1981. Think they'd find it a bit trickier now with a skeleton squad. 💀.
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MenorahTableofShowbread Posted on 27/10/2017 15:21
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Was it the same number that Liverpool used in 1965?
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macchiavelli Posted on 28/10/2017 10:04
Can we win the league?
Edited On: 28/10/2017 10:06
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According to wiki, Villa had a playing squad of 27 for the 81-82 season, so the on-field resources were in place, had they needed them. Which, in the event, they didn't.

I'm sure JA would be turning cartwheels to know that his 'on-field resources were in place'.
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crazyface Posted on 30/10/2017 11:13
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"And with every passing year, it appears ever more remarkable, almost unbelievable really, that in 1980/81 Aston Villa won the title with just 14 players."
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crazyface Posted on 30/10/2017 11:15
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And back on topic, the way to win the league is top beat the crap teams at the bottom. Then the game v the top teams take on a lesser meaning.[:D]
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bollingtonblue Posted on 30/10/2017 16:49
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I wonder whether a quick exit from the FA Cup would help our chances of winning the league? A counter argument is that a lucrative cup run could inject some cash to help us hang on to our best players and/or recruit some reinforcements in January.
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saltpie Posted on 30/10/2017 17:16
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I can't see this, losing on Saturday would mean three straight defeats and not help confidence.
Admittedly we will be underdogs on Saturday and hopefully John will play his strongest team as Forest Green will be a far different opposition than Stourbridge.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 21/11/2017 07:48
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Only one win from our last three league matches has surpressed talk of us winning the league. But we remain only one point behind the leaders Dover. The bookies have us as 6th favourites at 12/1 to be champions and 10/1 for promotion.
Let's hope that tonight we produce a great performance, score 3 or more goals and go top of the league again.
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Fola Posted on 21/11/2017 08:56
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I like your optimism BB but there is no chance we'll score 3 goals. We'll play Scott Wilson up top on his own and Steve McNulty will kick the XXXX out of him.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 26/11/2017 12:17
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Sutton and Wrexham are leading the league but have averaged only 1.77 points per game for almost half a season. If they carry on like that they will finish with 82 points. If they do better in the second half and manage say 2 points per game from now on they will finish on 87 points. So it is not impossible to see the champions this season finishing with somewhere between 82 and 87 points.
If we say 86 points will win the league we need 2 points a game from now on which is not an impossible target but is better than we have managed by a long way in any season in recent years. To illustrate the goal: in every 5 games we have to win 3 and draw 1 with 1 defeat.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 27/11/2017 07:55
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A close analysis of the table shows that 9 teams could realistically win the league this season with almost half the games gone. This is probably the most open season ever in the Conference/National League.
In most seasons one or two sides come to Moss Rose and look a cut above the average playing with skill, speed and power that make them look like likely champions. This season no team has looked much better than us. I'm not quite sure why this is, especially as the two teams relegated from Div 2 have larger parachute payment than in previous seasons.
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macchiavelli Posted on 27/11/2017 09:23
Can we win the league?
Edited On: 27/11/2017 09:26
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It's pretty much stating the obvious, but you need....

A) A good playing squad (both quality and quantity).
B) Good management.
C) Sufficient finance to provide A and B

The backing of loyal fans and an occasional bit of good fortune helps, but, even then, there are no guarantees.

We've looked as good as most so far I reckon. Just seems that the lack of firepower is what's holding us back.
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Fola Posted on 27/11/2017 09:34
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The only reason we lack firepower is because of the way JA sets up his squad. It's the same story every XXXXXX season.
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WillMill Posted on 27/11/2017 09:48
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Edited On: 27/11/2017 19:24
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John plays to his strengths. To change the shape effectively we need a target man up front. If we could have attracted John Parkin to join us rather than York we would have won the Trophy. On the heavy grounds over the next three months our passing game will be less effective.
Our league position shows our shape has been effective up till now.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 28/11/2017 21:56
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We are down to 4th with Aldershot winning away against Bromley tonight. They now top the league on goal difference ahead of Sutton and Wrexham. We really do need to start winning some games again.
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macchiavelli Posted on 29/11/2017 10:32
Can we win the league?
Edited On: 29/11/2017 10:48
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In terms of current form (last 6 games), Macc are 18th of 24 teams. Obviously, that needs to change PDQ if we are to have a realistic chance.

Fola, 'It's the same story every XXXXXX season.' Although with a point less overall, we had actually scored 7 more league goals at this point last season.

I tend to agree with WillMill that JA likes to stick to his 'comfort blanket' set up, but I still think it could be made more productive.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 11/12/2017 20:03
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After our great win against Wrexham most of us must feel that we can win this league. We have managed 3 wins and 3 draws in our last 6 matches so that is the 2 points per game target we need to keep up for the rest of the season. That would see us finish on 88 points which should secure first spot this season.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 11/12/2017 20:53
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This season could end with a very exciting finale. Dagenham and Redbridge are many of the bookies favourite to win the league and they are in the mix of the top teams so far and have won their last four games. We play them at Moss Rose in the last game of the season at the end of April. Could it be that the winner of that final game wins the league!
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MenorahTableofShowbread Posted on 11/12/2017 22:21
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Calm down , calm down!

There's a long way to go before that.
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metz1984 Posted on 11/12/2017 22:33
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A hell of a long way to go,and going off how our teams have performed in the last half of the last 3 or 4 seasons i would take one game at a time...[rle]
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TogetherAsOne Posted on 12/12/2017 10:49
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I see that the BBC are advertising a 12.30 kick off for the Dagenham game.

Is this game on BT Sports?

Promotion Party?
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leighmacc Posted on 12/12/2017 11:47
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All the games on the final day are 12:30 KOs.
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silkman86 Posted on 12/12/2017 22:29
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Bookies still giving Dagenham and Sutton more chance of winning the title (just). You can only get 5/1 on us winning the league now, yet bizarrely 10/1 for promotion!
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bollingtonblue Posted on 13/12/2017 07:41
Can we win the league?

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For the past few seasons the champions of the National League have averaged 2 points per game or better. 92 points is the lowest total that has won the league for a number of seasons. This season looks different. An average of 2.1 points per game is about as good as any team can achieve over a long period, so if you apply that figure to our main challengers for the rest of the season they would reach 88 points. So 89 points should secure automatic promotion and possibly even 88 or 87 points.
With 22 games remaining our target should be 45 more points which is:
15 wins with 7 draws or defeats
14 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats
13 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats
12 wins, 9 draws and 1 defeat
Come on you blues!
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Fola Posted on 13/12/2017 10:16
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If JA plays Marsh and Wilson upfront at home we will get promoted- they have a great understanding on the pitch. Marsh's 2 assists for Wilson were delightful.
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macchiavelli Posted on 13/12/2017 10:48
Can we win the league?
Edited On: 13/12/2017 12:04
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Some great flick ons and awareness, I totally agree with Fola about Marsh and Wilson, but, sadly, I feel it will be academic, unless we improve the overall strength of the squad PDQ.

With a tiny squad, our luck regarding injuries, suspensions, and maybe loss of form, will run out eventually, without the insurance policy of some new and high quality signings.

Just hoping that what we have got will see us through another 20 odd tough games, is, I feel, optimistic in the extreme.

We might get away with it, but the odds are firmly against.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 13/12/2017 16:39
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Totally agree Macch..we need to sign at least two extra players soon. But are players of the right quality available? I notice that some of our rival clubs have been signing young players on loan from Football League clubs, but these will be unproven in first team football.
It's a shame that Toure seems to have gone off as he did add something to the squad and his absence is one less squad member of course. I suppose if he has gone his wages are available to pay someone else.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 23/12/2017 18:54
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Well this very open season continued today. Not one of the top 8 teams won, so our point at Bromley keeps us in the driving seat. At the moment we are managing 1.8 points per game with the teams below us on 1.72 or worse. If this continues to the end of the season it would be possible to win the league with just 80 points. Somehow I can't see that being enough but if we just maintain 1.8 points a game we would finish on 83 points. So I am going to revise my target to win the league to 85 points.
So 40 more points from 21 games can be achieved with:
14 wins
13 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats
12 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats
11 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats
10 wins, 10 draws and 1 defeat
This is increasingly looking like something we could do. Surely we must add a player or two to our squad for the final 20 or so games as promotion to Division 2 is worth a lot of extra cash.
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metz1984 Posted on 23/12/2017 20:38
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You will not believe what is happening behind the scenes,the penny is never going to drop with some posters on here...[rle]
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bollingtonblue Posted on 23/12/2017 20:51
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Metz.. please enlighten us about what is going on behind the scene.
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metz1984 Posted on 23/12/2017 20:59
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Reading the star lane forum on one thread may enlighten you a bit but that only sounds like the tip of the iceberg BB..
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bollingtonblue Posted on 24/12/2017 12:20
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Some on here are suggesting that Tranmere and Dagenham and Redbridge are the ones to watch now. Well an average of 2.2 points per game is the absolute best any team can realistically manage over a number of games and an average of 2 per game is more likely. Apply those averages to Tranmere from now to the end of the season and they will finish on between 81 to 85 points.
The same for Dagenham and Redbridge would see them finish on between 84 and 88 points.
My prediction remains the same that 85 points will be enough to win the league this season.
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macchiavelli Posted on 24/12/2017 12:33
Can we win the league?
Edited On: 24/12/2017 14:46
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I think that's a reasonable assessment bb.

It will boil down to who can best maintain their form for the remaining 20 odd games, and on current form (last 6 matches), MTFC (1.66 ppg) are well behind Tranmere (2.16 ppg) and Dag & Red (2.00 ppg).

If you add into the equation the relative resources of those clubs, then I think we may well have a problem.
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Jamestcc Posted on 26/12/2017 18:53
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If we beat Sutton on Saturday and Halifax on Monday it will go along way to having a serious chance of extending the gap at the top
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bollingtonblue Posted on 26/12/2017 19:37
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With today's victory against Halifax we have averaged 2 points per game over our past 8 matches. Keep that up and we will end on 88 points which I am pretty sure will win the league this season.
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zelem Posted on 27/12/2017 00:22
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Last of the great optimist!! Ffs ; get herself down leek Town!!!
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bollingtonblue Posted on 30/12/2017 20:29
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After another 3 points gained against one of the favourites to win the league and now being 6 points clear at the top of the table even the most hardened pessimist must think that we can win the league this season.
But the team to watch coming up fast is Tranmere, who have won their last 5 matches and are averaging nearly 2.4 points per game over their past 8 matches. If they manage to keep up that average per game until the end of the season they would finish on 91 points. Somehow I don't think they will do quite that well, but if they average say 2.2 points per game from now on they will finish on 87 points.
So I am revising my target total for Macc from 85 points up to 88 points. So with 19 games remaining we need 37 more points which is 1.95 points per game. We can get 37 points from:
13 wins
12 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats
11 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats
10 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats
On our present form this should be possible but this afternoon we had an injury to Hodgkiss and will be without Jalal for 3 games so the strains on the squad could start to show.
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fossey1 Posted on 30/12/2017 21:12
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Jalal should only have a 1 match ban
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lymeview Posted on 30/12/2017 21:28
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And Hodgkiss is the only player we don't have cover for.
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fossey1 Posted on 30/12/2017 21:54
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The bookies now think we can win we are now 5/2 with Tranmere 7/2 Sutton 11/2 and then Dagenham 10/1
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poynton_yella Posted on 31/12/2017 19:27
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Tranmere are really picking up a head of steam....they are going to be the danger i reckon
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bollingtonblue Posted on 01/01/2018 21:37
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That win at Halifax extends our undefeated run to 10 games - 6 wins and 4 draws. That is 2.2 points per game and true table topping form. Surely we must be favourites to win the league now.
Watching the performance at Halifax confirmed to me that the team takes the field now with the positive mentality that they want to win every game.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 02/01/2018 08:35
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Tranmere's defeat at Fylde ended their winning run and leaves them a heafty 11 points behind us. Giving Aldershot 2 points a game to the end of the season would see them finish on 84 points. I reckon the target now is 86 points which is 32 more points from 18 games.
11 wins
10 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats
9 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats
8 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats
7 wins and 11 draws with 0 defeats.
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MenorahTableofShowbread Posted on 02/01/2018 11:22
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I think we should stick to "taking each game as it comes" but the away games at Aldershot and Tranmere will have a big influence on the final requirement.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 07/01/2018 10:12
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Well a home draw keeps the points tally moving forward and has extended our unbeaten run to 11 games. But our lead over Aldershot has shrunk to 4 points. One or more of the chasing pack could reach about 85 points if they have a storming finish to the season and average over 2 points per game. My target for Macc remains 86 points which is 31 more points from 17 games which is a fraction over 1.8 points per game which just slightly below what we have achieved for the season to date.
So 31 points could be gained from
11 wins
10 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats
9 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats
8 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats
7 wins, 10 draws and 0 defeats.
This remains an achievable target with some strengthening of the squad.
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macchiavelli Posted on 07/01/2018 16:38
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In the 2nd half of last season we averaged just 1.347 points per game.

We will have to do an awful lot better than that this time if we are to be in with a shout.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 19/01/2018 12:41
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It's looking like Salford City with all their financial backing will be in the National Premier next season as they are top of National North and going well. I think getting promoted this year is a must for us as the competition next season with both the relegated clubs from Div 2 (with their full parachute payments) and the increasing number of heavily bankrolled clubs in our league means that winning the league next season or getting promoted via the play-offs will be a very tall order.
Win 10 of our remaining 17 games plus a draw or two and we should be there.
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maccman Posted on 19/01/2018 12:55
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Macchiavelli , interestingly , an average of 1.347 over our remaining fixtures would put us finishing on 78 points which would be good enough for a top 7 finish looking back over previous years. So, even our usual second half of the season form would see us qualify for the playoffs.
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macchiavelli Posted on 19/01/2018 15:21
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Here's hoping. 🤞
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Nigel_Shaws_Right_Boot Posted on 19/01/2018 17:03
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Let's see how we feel on Weds 21st Feb!
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leighmacc Posted on 19/01/2018 18:01
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Last season we played 25 games from now until end of April. This season we only have 17.
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lymeview Posted on 19/01/2018 18:55
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Good point leighmacc.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 23/01/2018 17:03
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After that shocking result at Fylde we still remain 3 points ahead at the top of the league. I have looked again at how many points will probably be needed to win the league and I reckon now it may be 87, as a poor goal difference could render 86 not quite enough. So 32 points from 16 games will do it at exactly 2 points per game average.
11 wins
10 wins with 2 draws and 4 defeats
9 wins with 5 draws and 2 defeats
8 wins with 8 draws and 0 defeats.
If we pick up 3 points on Saturday against Torquay I think some optimism may return. It is possible that 85 or 86 points will turn out to be enough.
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macchiavelli Posted on 23/01/2018 20:01
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We need to steamroller the Gulls on Saturday (Sounds messy. Lots of blood and feathers!).

Let's have positive team selection, sound tactics, loyal support from the fans, and 110% commitment from every player.

I want to walk out of the gates with Dave Clark ringing in my ears, knowing that Fylde was just an aberration.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 27/01/2018 17:46
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Well we failed to beat the bottom club and have now been 3 games without a win. Our lead at the top is down to one point and there is a feeling that the usual January onwards tail off has set in. Winning the league is of course still achievable but I am sure most of us regulars think now we won't manage it.
Some of the results again went well for us with a draw between Wrexham and Tranmere and Fylde at last losing. But Aldershot managed an away win at Leyton Orient to push them up to a point behind us.
I still think 87 points is the target to win the league, so we now need 31 points from 15 games - just over 2 points per game and probably requiring us to get at least 9 wins and possibly 10. Maybe the chasing pack will drop points against each other but it only requires one of them to have a storming run in and 85+ points will be needed.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 28/01/2018 09:02
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I see the bookies have dropped us to 4th favourites to win the league at odds of 6/1. Seems good odds for the team topping the league with just 15 games to play. Sutton are favourites for promotion followed by Wrexham and Tranmere.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 28/01/2018 09:07
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Sorry it is Sutton, Aldershot and Tranmere who are the bookies favourites with Wrexham behind us.
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metz1984 Posted on 28/01/2018 11:02
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that is because we cant afford to pay leauge wages,we are going NO WHERE
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Nigel_Shaws_Right_Boot Posted on 28/01/2018 11:04
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It's worth taking the place at those odds
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macchiavelli Posted on 28/01/2018 11:14
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Reluctantly, I have to agree with bb.

Consistency is all, and, regardless of what has gone before, I have seen nothing in the last 3 games that indicates we are play off material.

We need some good results very soon to silence the swelling crescendo of 🎶'Same old Silkmen, New Year fadeout' 🎶.


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boomer22 Posted on 28/01/2018 21:29
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Macchiavelli they played the song but you had seagull poo all over your shoulders.
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crazyface Posted on 29/01/2018 09:02
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No.

Tranmere for me.

Play offs? Aldershot.

Macc will collapse and finish just outside the play offs.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 30/01/2018 22:25
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Steve Watson's Gateshead helped us tonight by restricting Wrexham to just one point with a 0-0 draw.
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SilkmenRyan Posted on 30/01/2018 23:16
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Edited On: 30/01/2018 23:17
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I genuinely think we will win the league. We always fade away in January with form etc, but after January has gone, our form magically comes back. Every league winning team has a bad run of form in a season! We just need to believe and get behind the team! Come on you Silkmen!!
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fossey1 Posted on 31/01/2018 11:46
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With macc not playing Saturday i don't think we Will be top with Wrexham playing guisley because i think they will win and they have a better goal difference because of our shocking display against Flyde
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Nigel_Shaws_Right_Boot Posted on 31/01/2018 22:48
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I'll go for Guiseley 1 Wrexham 1. Wrexham are going on a good drawing spree.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 06/02/2018 01:49
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With between 14 and 16 games remaining it looks as though 5 teams could be champions - Macc, Wrexham, Aldershot, Tranmere and Sutton. If one of our challengers manage to finish the season averaging say 2.1 points per game in the run in then 87 points will probably be required to win the league. A point or two less could turn out to be enough.
If we beat Guiseley on Saturday (and surely we have to to retain our challenge and restore momentum) then we will possibly go top again with 59 points and 14 games remaining meaning we would require 28 more points at an average of exactly 2 points per game. This is achievable .. come on you blues!
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macchiavelli Posted on 07/02/2018 11:10
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Aldershot and Tranmere are clearly the front runners for the title now in my eyes.

Both are in form, and significantly better resourced than we are. The upcoming away games against these 2 will, I think, be crucial benchmarks in the race to be champions.

We need to beat Guiseley, and, at least share the points with the Shots and Rovers, to have a realistic chance.
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beefburger Posted on 07/02/2018 16:53
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Yes, on 17 Feb we have two massive games within four days, Aldershot away followed by Tranmere away. We've not exactly had the best preparation going into those two games, Macc players will no doubt be worrying about their February wages whilst Aldershot & Tranmere players will be focussed on their win bonuses!

Two weeks ago I really thought we could win the league, now I'm not even sure we'll make the playoffs ☹️
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bollingtonblue Posted on 07/02/2018 17:03
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It's simple really...we have 15 games remaining and we will need to win 10 of them plus possibly a draw or two. Do that and we could even lose to Tranmere and Aldershot and still win the league.
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macchiavelli Posted on 07/02/2018 18:20
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I think Macc losing those 2 games and going on to win the league would be about as likely as airborne pigs. 🐷🐷🐷
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imlosingit Posted on 07/02/2018 22:35
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I still think we can win it,as long as nelson gets his eye back...[rle]
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ryansilkmen Posted on 09/02/2018 22:48
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Nope we are not going up
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lymeview Posted on 10/02/2018 11:22
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Why not? Win our game in hand and we are top of the League.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 10/02/2018 11:36
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Winning this afternoon at home to Guiseley is absolutely vital to restore momentum. I would say that this is possibly even more important than beating Aldershot and Tranmere as a draw against both of them or a defeat and a win would keep us on course.
If we win this afternoon we will have 14 games remaining with 9 more wins required.
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macchiavelli Posted on 10/02/2018 11:37
Can we win the league?
Edited On: 10/02/2018 11:42
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Sutton, Tranmere, Aldershot, all away today.

Absolutely crucial that we beat the side bottom of the NL to keep the pressure on.

Hoping that players and fans can bond this arvo to achieve the required win, and put the off field machinations of the last few weeks behind us.

We HAVE to produce a performance today.
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Fooldude Posted on 10/02/2018 17:09
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.... and we did.

If we win the rest of our games we can't be beaten [:o)]
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bollingtonblue Posted on 10/02/2018 21:35
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Well we managed to get the 3 points to end our run of 3 matches without a win and take us back to the top but only by a single point ahead of Aldershot. The shots are the form team at the moment and have been 8 games without a defeat and have averaged 2.25 points per game over that run. If they were to keep that up for the rest of the season they would finish on 89 or 90 points. I suspect that they will not do quite that well and 2 points per game would get them to 86 points. So I will maintain the target of 87 points to win the league, although I am close to upping it to 88 but will resist for the moment.
So we have 14 games remaining and 28 points to get at exactly 2 points per game to reach 87 points and probably return to the Football League without needing the play-offs.
28 points can be reached with:
10 wins and 4 defeats or draws
9 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats
8 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats
7 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats.
We can do this but it's not easy.
I reckon 78 points or more will secure a play-off spot.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 11/02/2018 09:37
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The bookies now have us as third equal favourites to win the league with Tranmere and offer odds of 5/1 behind Sutton at 9/4 and Aldershot at 3/1.
I think these odds must reflect the scale of the betting on these clubs to some extent.
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fossey1 Posted on 11/02/2018 10:43
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With us playing Aldershot and then Tranmere away in the next 2 games if we can win them both we Will be back to favorites
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Nigel_Shaws_Right_Boot Posted on 11/02/2018 13:15
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bookies odds are also influenced by where the money goes - i.e. Tranmere loads of fans shorter odds - I doubt macc would be favourites until 6 points clear with 2 games to go!!
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bollingtonblue Posted on 13/02/2018 21:43
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Barrow 1 Sutton 1 tonight so Sutton remain 3 points behind us and the same games played. Not a bad result for us really.
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bollingtonblue Posted on 20/02/2018 23:13
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I doubt if many of us thought that we would beat both Aldershot and Tranmere away, but that is exactly what we have done and conceding just one goal in each game. Noone can be left in any doubt now that we can win this league.
After the latest results we now lead Sutton United by 5 points with 12 games remaining. I now think that 86 points will be enough to be champions and that requires one of the main challengers to average over 2 points per game for the remaining matches. So my latest target for Macc is 21 more points from 12 games which is just 1.75 points per game average - lower than our season average to date of 1.9 points per game.
21 points can be gained from:
7 wins and 5 defeats or draws
6 wins with 3 draws and 3 defeats
5 wins with 6 draws and 1 defeat
I think the home gates will go up as we close in on the title.
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Nigel_Shaws_Right_Boot Posted on 20/02/2018 23:47
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12 wins gives us 101 points! [pa]
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jefft Posted on 21/02/2018 14:07
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We HAVE to win this league. The play-offs are no good; down that route lies potential heart-break and expensive trips to London to make Wembley look viable (Spurs aside).
On last night's showing we now have little to fear, BUT this is football; nothing is a given and it can go belly up at any time..
The Rovers blog described us as 'ruthless' in our approach to the game, but they had some very near misses in the opening few minutes, and some great saves and goals broke them in the end. Up to that point I felt it it was pretty even. We now have to be 'ruthless' against middle-of-table opposition in the coming games, and not see those as banana skins.
All that said, it was a great atmosphere last night. In 60+ years of watching football at all levels, it was up there with the best.
Well done guys (team and fans).
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bollingtonblue Posted on 22/02/2018 11:01
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I don't want to take attention away from us going for automatic promotion by winning the league but I reckon that 75 points is what will be required to secure 7th place or better and a play-off position this season. That means we have to get just 10 more points from our 12 remaining games and we are in the play-offs - just 3 wins and a draw. But we certainly want much better than that of course.
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boomer22 Posted on 22/02/2018 11:45
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The fewer games that are left the bigger our leading margin becomes in percentage terms. COYB.
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