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foxinabox Posted on 16/05/2019 15:34
Thomas Cook

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Made a loss this year, share price down and the chief executive blames Brexit uncertainty (among other things, but the news specialises in that fact in order to rile the population).

How can Brexit uncertainty possibly affect this business? Brexit hasn't happened yet, and probably never will. Is the firm convinced that people will go abroad on vacation, Brexit will happen all of a sudden, and they will be forced into squalid internment camps? Or they're being forced into stockpiling holidays in case Brexit comes and they can't get any more?

I'd be inclined to blame last summer's heatwave, a mild winter (which might be down to climate change but is definitely nothing to do with Brexit) and the fact that Thomas Cook keeps losing children by carbon monoxide poisoning and adults through a faulty air conditioning system.

There is also the fact that Thomas Cook relies on people who come into its shops, pick a suitable destination, and then instead of buying a holiday there and then, go rushing online to 'cheapholidays.com' and save themselves a large amount of money.

None of this is anything to do with Brexit. Can anybody wonder why Brexiteers tend to take predictions about what will happen after Brexit with a very large pinch of salt?
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ClaphamFox Posted on 16/05/2019 15:51
Thomas Cook

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You should get on the blower to Thomas Cook and explain to them what's going on in their own business as they clearly don't have the foggiest.
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sixthswan Posted on 16/05/2019 15:53
Thomas Cook

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Brexit uncertainty is exactly that. It is uncertainty; whether we left the EU or not.

If you can accept that at least one person in the whole country might have delayed holidays plans in the last 6 months; then you can accept that many people may have done so.

At least some of that delay can be attributed to Brexit uncertainty. Whether it is justified uncertainty, or not...
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foxinabox Posted on 16/05/2019 16:29
Thomas Cook

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Thomas Cook lost £1.5bn last year. There would have to be an awful lot of potential travellers cancelling their holidays due to Brexit uncertainty to make up for that.

My guess is that it's more to do with having 587 shops, but I can't be completely sure about that, and as Clapham said, they are in the best position to know their business.
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StalybridgeFox Posted on 16/05/2019 16:57
Thomas Cook

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Problems with aircraft has cost them hundreds of millions in renting other ones along with the pilots who fly them. People tightening their purses due to brexit uncertainty. Maybe not cancelling holidays altogether but looking at cheaper destinations (non EU). Euro also really poor exchange rate so another reason to go to non Euro countries. People attempting to cut out the middle men also definitely a reason although not specific to recent years more a long term trend.
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foxinabox Posted on 16/05/2019 17:28
Thomas Cook

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TC do sell holidays to non-EU destinations, so I'm not sure if that's got anything to do with it. The relatively poor exchange rate is a factor, though not that much.

I'm interested in what you say about the planes. In which case, why does the chief executive officer not blame the difficulties on the problems with hiring planes, rather than Brexit uncertainty?

Is it to do with Brexit uncertainty being nothing to do with the firm itself, and instead cast them as victims during a time of total economic collapse, rather than something which could be construed as being their own fault?

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JIMMYWILLIS Posted on 16/05/2019 18:25
Thomas Cook

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1.1bn was a write off from what looks like a bad acquisition so itís not that bad... [rle]
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foxinabox Posted on 16/05/2019 18:47
Thomas Cook

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That's a lot better. Replace 'bad acquisition' with 'Brexit uncertainty' and Bob's your uncle. Trebles all round!
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LeicesterRino Posted on 16/05/2019 19:30
Thomas Cook

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Excellent news. Flying to foreign holidays is terrible for the environment and bad for the UK economy
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ericsteel Posted on 16/05/2019 20:41
Thomas Cook

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Mid Wales is nice.
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borebage53 Posted on 16/05/2019 21:06
Thomas Cook
Edited On: 16/05/2019 21:08
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"Don't just book it, Thomas F o o k it"!
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tudor_fox Posted on 16/05/2019 22:56
Thomas Cook

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Relive the experience of Thomas Cooks first package holiday by jumping on a train to Looga.
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northleicsblue Posted on 16/05/2019 23:12
Thomas Cook

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I usually go on holiday with Thomas Cook
This year I haven't booked as I'm not sure how Brexit will affect things.
Hth
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DagenhamFox Posted on 17/05/2019 05:58
Thomas Cook

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Brexit wonít affect things. You might have to go to the post office in the UK before you go and spend eight quid on a driving license extension if you want to hire a car, but thatís it.

In time you may have to get a visa but that will not be from day 1. The day after it happens (if it happens) youíll still be able to get to Torremolinos without any problems. Nobodyís said this though so I understand the apprehension.
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astleyfox Posted on 17/05/2019 06:33
Thomas Cook

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True Daggers, but those facts over simplify things too much for some.
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LeicesterRino Posted on 17/05/2019 06:44
Thomas Cook

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The only way to judge the effect of Brexit is to compare the total number of people going on holiday to Europe to last year
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shanetko Posted on 17/05/2019 07:42
Thomas Cook

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If we were in the champions league still theyíd be doing just fine. BAMS were keeping em afloat in club organised packages.
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mickyhoss Posted on 17/05/2019 07:57
Thomas Cook

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I only went in once
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Carapace Posted on 17/05/2019 08:07
Thomas Cook

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I donít think it is brexit uncertainty.
We had a fabulous summer last year, I live in a tourist destination in England and everyone here reported great figures for last year.
We only need a great summer and people discover that there are some wonderful places to visit and just how beautiful the country they live in is, and want to come back for more.
If we ever sorted the rail system out we would clea up.
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shanetko Posted on 17/05/2019 08:39
Thomas Cook

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The pub must be closed down 20 years now!
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Adumass Posted on 17/05/2019 10:39
Thomas Cook

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what is undeniable is that brexit has made a holiday in the euro zone a minimum of +20% more expensive.

that has an impact on numbers.
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youlittleripper Posted on 17/05/2019 10:51
Thomas Cook

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Its an incredible OP and follow up. Of course its going to have an effect on people taking holidays in Europe when plenty of holidays are booked often straight after returning from the previous years summer holiday or around January time when at that point we were leaving the EU in March and now potentially relative uncertainty has been extended to June (after which most people would naturally have chosen to go on holiday).

Beyond the fact that the pound is weak and the threat of no deal or the general uncertainty has caused the markets to suggest it could crash against the Euro when and if we leave. Would that encourage the average sane family of 4 to book a holiday abroad come the summer? Of course not as NLB and a few others have stated.

Funnily enough the relative down turn in real terms has had an effect on Germany too. with relatively poor growth by their standards at the start of the year its been reported in the Majorca press that this May alone around 100,000 less germans are visiting opting for cheaper holidays in Egypt and Turkey.
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foxinabox Posted on 17/05/2019 11:43
Thomas Cook

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So, what you're saying is that Brexit uncertainty is the main driver in the UK but travel firms in Germany are having to look further to find their excuses. That makes sense. Why not strip out the middle man (i.e. Brexit uncertainty) and admit that both the UK and Germany are suffering in real terms anyway?

My main point in the OP was how the news treats Brexit uncertainty and not about Thomas Cook in particular. I don't know how Thomas Cook runs their business and my view was largely a satirical one.

As soon as the media gets hold of one CEO they are asking 'is your business affected by Brexit uncertainty' and if the answer is 'yes, I suppose it's a contributory factor, but...' and the media go 'That's enough' and lead the news with it.

Even though Thomas Cook have lost £1.5bn which cannot possibly be down to Brexit uncertainty even if Brexit uncertainty were multiplied 50 times, still it gets the publicity. I know why the media do this, it's to get people riled and it's more interesting than the other business stuff.
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astleyfox Posted on 17/05/2019 11:48
Thomas Cook

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Why wouldnt you go to Egypt or turkey? Cape Verde is my current favourite. The people are friendly and keen to provide a service. Most of my holidays before were in the canaries. The Spanish give the impression that they would rather we simply sent them a cheque, than turn up expecting service. I fully agree that more stayed in this country last year, due to the great summer. Why wouldnt you?
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